8/19: Saratoga (Day 27); Del Mar ($786k P5 C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Miss Nancy 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Glory to Kitten 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Silver Magnolia 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Miss Aja Brown 5-1 7th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Timber Ghost 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #1 Asdaaf 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Pennyforyourthoughts 5-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Leinster 5-2 2nd


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Tap Tap Taparoo 10-1 WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #8 Alternative Energy 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Overheated 12-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Stylishly 10-1 7th


4th: Summer Colony-R, F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Awestruck 7-5 4th
Best Value: #3 Forever Liesl 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Moonlit Garden 9-5 WON ($6.30)


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Newspaperofrecord 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #1 Sister Kitten 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Alasaayil 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Shannon's Girl 7-2 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
2: 1-7 (A), 4-8 (B), 6 (C)
3: 8-10 (A), - (B), 4-6-7 (C)
4: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
5: 5 (A), 1 (B), 4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (1,8/7/10/4/5,11,12,13) Paid $758.75


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), 4-8 (B), 6 (C)
3: 8-10 (A), 4 (B), 6-7 (C)
4: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
5: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/10/4/5,11,12,13) Paid $313.50


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Crazily competitive lawn dash..

Best Value: #7 We Should Talk 8-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #2 Fast Getaway 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Vitsal 2-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Outrageous Bet 12-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Flatter My Heart 7-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Mo Wheels Up 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Two Dozen Roses 10-1 WON-Up via DQ ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #9 China Cat 9-2 7th


8th: Opt CLM/C, 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wonderful Light 5-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Behavioral Bias 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Favorable Outcome 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Life in Shambles 5-1 5th


9th: Opt CLM/C, 3yo, 9.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Nakamura 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Admission Office 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #7 War Chest 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Strike 4-1 6th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #1 Fortythreeoeight N 7-2 9th
Best Value: #11 Over Rider 15-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Generalist 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Comeoncomecat 5-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), - (B), 7-10 (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

7: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-9 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 2-3 (B), 4-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

$786k P5 C/O starts here.. Pot could hit $4MM..

Not a lot of speed here and big plays will buy the race..

Most Likely: #5 Avanti Bello 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Point Piper 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Mercer Island 7-2 WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #1 Beantown Boys 4-1 4th


2nd: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Four on the lead types (2-3-4-5) and three closers (1-6-7)..

Most Likely: #1 Heartfullofstars 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Creed 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Candy Crew 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Hoss Cartwright 6-1 6th


3rd: Opt CLM/C, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Quebec 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #1 Helen Hillary 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #3 Dominating Woman 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 A Little Bit Me 5-1 3rd


4th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Headley sends VERY nice pair in 3yo Surfing Star (first out winner in February) and 4yo The Street Fighter (last seen in ambitious Malibu try). Perfect Wager flies late out of open company S/ALW win. King Abner returns to dirt and Churchill CLM win fits here. Small budget plays will lean on Surfing Star as a single..

Most Likely: #2 Surfing Star 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 King Abner 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Perfect Wager 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 The Street Fighter 7-2 7th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tricky finish to potential payday with MDN's turf sprinting. Sadler/Van Dyke/Hronis look potent outside with Point of Entry (17% debut winners) miss. Carla Gaines historically bad first out but it looks like Midnight in Dixie is a runner. Orageuse (Mandella) makes soph debut here and Fiftyeight Special should like the turf..

Best Value: #7 Midnight in Dixie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Tantara 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Fiftyeight Special 8-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Orageuse 5-1 9th


P5 Grid:

1: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3 (C)
2: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 1-6 (A), 3 (B), 7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
5: 7-4-12 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

2: 1-4 (A), 2-5 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
3: 1-6 (A), 3 (B), 7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
5: 3-4-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve