9/1: Saratoga (Woodword/Spinaway Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky group with mix of live looking firsters and 2nd time runners that should improve..

Most Likely: #6 Signalman 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #3 Lion Dance 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Fed Fever 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Frolic More 6-1 5th


2nd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Royal Asset 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Zoot Suit 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Dowse's Beach 5-1 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #9 Platinum Prince 3-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Business Cycle had misfortune of running into stakes-bound Hersh in hot 8/4 event. Tiz Morning's GP dirt debut was flat out good and return to preferred surface could produce exotic bonus..

Most Likely: #4 Business Cycle 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Tiz Morning 30-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Allured 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 The Dustman 30-1 9th


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Excellent group including a gaggle of hard-hitters. Shug gets Protesting's War Front colt on the grass and that looks like a difference-making chance for the 3yo v. elders..

Best Value: #1 Breaking the Rules 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Attribute 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Night Prowler 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Team Colors 9-2 DNF-Lost rider


5th: Cond. ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Rachel Alexandra brother Wooderson back for more after terrific MDN-breaker at start of the meet. Lone winner at the trip and oddly priced as the 3rd choice on the ML..

Most Likely: #4 Wooderson 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Weather Wiz 2-1 WON ($8.70)
Best Value: #2 Mr. Dougie Fresh 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Uncle Sigh 5-2 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 3-5-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-4-7 (C)
2: 4-7 (A), 1-9 (B), 8-10 (C)
3: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 1-4-8 (A), 2-5-7 (B), 3-9 (C)
5: 4 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x6x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x1x3x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Full A-B-C: $108


P4 Grid:

2: 1-4-7-9 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
3: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 1-4-8 (A), 2-5-7 (B), 3-9 (C)
5: 4-5 (A), 1-2 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Full A-B-C: $72


6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Noble Spirit 7-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Southern Bridge 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Spirit Animal 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #7 Noble Nebraskan 6-1 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Well-matched set featuring 4 last out winners..

Most Likely: #3 Uno Mas Modelo 4-1 WON ($8.70)
Next Best: #6 Long Haul Bay 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Phi Beta Express 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Chris and Dave 6-1 7th


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-IT (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Strike Me Down 7-2 2nd-DQ'd to 3rd
Best Value: #5 Themanbehindtheman 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Coltandmississippi 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Another 9-2 8th


9th: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Without fanfare, this has potential to be one of the best races of the season. Hawkbill brother Free Drop Billy makes long-awaited turf debut. Kent hero Golden Brown returns to lawn after understandable Haskell try while Hot Springs, his closest rival at DEL, looks like value for Asmussen & Woodford. Hall of Fame exacta thriller of Raging Bull & Maraud are signed on, while last out stakes winners March to the Arch SCR'D (Toronto Cup), Up the Ante (Manila) & Therapist (NY Stallion) add more pepper to the pot. Tim Hills tries Sand Dancer and while the field's longest shot, the Woodhaven winner shows a strong Oceanport worktab and will be part of the pace picture. Superb running of this long time Spa standard that started on the main and featured winners like Whirlaway, Hard Tack, Sarazen & Regret. It moved to the turf in 1979..

Best Value: #7 Therapist 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Maraud 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Golden Brown 12-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Raging Bull 2-1 WON ($6.50)


P4 Grid:

6: 2 (A), 3-9 (B), 5-7-11 (C)
7: 3-6 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 3-4-7-9 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Full A-B-C: $118


10th: 127th Spinaway (G1), 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

This ought to be fun with American Pharoah sister coming East, the Schuylerville pair and McPeek's highly focused Restless Rider..

Most Likely: #7 Chasing Yesterday 5-2 7th
Best Value: #11 Restless Rider 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Catherinethegreat 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Sippican Harbor 10-1 WON ($34.00)


11th: 65th Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Thoroughly ridiculous lineup for this and there's no reason not to swing for the fences. One major factor that looms is a lack of real pace and addition of Carmouche to 20-1 Leofric (8/6-1-1 since moving to Cox) grabs attention as player that could seize control. While on the subject of Brad Cox aquisitions, Term of Art makes 3rd start in the barn and gets Junior Alvarado who can stalk and go at 30-1. Sunny Ridge (8-1) and Seeking the Soul (9-2) are in form and look eligible to draft into advantageous trips. Rally Cry (20-1) was 2nd in this behind Gun Runner and will be a forgotten horse today..

Best Value: #6 Term of Art 30-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Seeking the Soul 9-2 13th
Exotics Use: #11 Leofric 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Sunny Ridge 8-1 8th


12th: Glens Falls (G2), F&M-3+, 11f-IT

Most Likely: #3 Onthemoonagain 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Summersault 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Santa Monica 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Homeland Security 9-2 8th


P5 Grid:

8: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-7-8 (C)
9: 3-4-7-9 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
10: 7 (A), - (B), 4-11 (C)
11: 6-10-11-12 (A), 1-4-13-14 (B), 8-9 (C)
12: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x1x8x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x1x4x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
Full A-B-C: $158


P4 Grid:

9: 3-4-7-9 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
10: 7 (A), 4-11 (B), 5-6 (C)
11: 6-10-11-12 (A), 1-4-13-14 (B), 8-9 (C)
12: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x8x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x4x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)
Full AB-C: $98


Good luck!
Steve