5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He was fairly sharp from the gate in all 3 FG starts although he stumbled slightly in the Lecomte and lost his hind end after a handful of strides in the Louisiana Derby.

At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not.


I would prefer if Improbable showed more early foot, if for no other reason than his riders wouldn't be compelled to make the silly middle moves he's made in his last two.

However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby.

Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017.

Interesting take on Improbable. I’m pretty high on him heading into the Derby. If anything, it seems to me like he’s got quite a bit of room to improve off of his last two starts. But I’ve liked his overal talent level for a long time so I may be letting that skew my analysis. Same goes for Vekoma. I’ve liked him since the Nashua...so I keep looking at him and thinking he’s got a chance to wire the field...though I know most will probably think I’m crazy for thinking that.