Churchill Downs Saturday May 4

[Kitan]

Didn't have a chance to put picks up yesterday. Needed Liora to get up in the Oaks for a big P4 score and feel like I had my guts ripped out by that stretch run. No time to dwell, back at it for the big day!

Race 1:
#5 Kowboy Karma: Showed some promise as a 2yo and steadily improved throughout 3yo campaign. Not given much chance off a 47 half when last seen in January. Worth a price in a short field with questions over two of the favs (#2 has seconditis, #6 off the shelf and best races on a fast track).

Race 2:
#4 King Zachary: Gets back to one-turn for the first time since his maiden days. Didn't run bad in those (slow half on debut, completely taken out of it early in his second start). Comes off an extended layoff but is working well for his return, and his best races have come at Churchill.
#6 American Anthem: This is much easier than what he's been facing, but that's the problem as he hasn't been seen since the summer. Not keen to take a short price when he's never won past 7f.
#1/1A Coupled Entry

Race 3:
Will be hard to beat the coupled entry, but will throw a few dollars on #3 Saddle Bar. Works have been much improved since heading out to KY and could run a sneaky race.

Race 4:
#4 High Crime: Think he can get a nice stalking trip behind a duel up front.
#2 Hidden Scroll
#5 Borracho
#3 Zorb

Race 5:
Small plays on the turf debutants #4 Senora Gato and #8 Lady Trish's Dream

Race 6:
#3 Mia Mischief: Hard to pass up at 12-1ML.
#7 Marley's Freedom
#2 Spiced Perfection
#6 Emboldened

Race 7:
#10 Valedictorian: Held on last time when giving #3 4lbs and just run down late two back when giving #6 6lbs. Even weights with both those this time around and there doesn't look to be much speed up front.
#7 Capla Temptress: A mile is probably her best distance so no surprise to see her salute when returning to that trip in December. #6 warrants a lot of attention for her G1 win, but room for argument that this filly ran at least equally good in her edition of that event a year later in a tougher field.
#6 Precieuse
#5 Daddy Is a Legend

Race 8:
#3 Majestic Dunhill: Couldn't have asked for a better dirt debut when coming from well out of it to take a Listed event. Thrown to the wolves in the Malibu, but bounced back with a strong run behind a wire-to-wire winner (#9). Not given much of a chance with the pace scenario last time out. Will definitely get something to run at here and will be a big price.
#6 Promises Fulfilled: A step slow at the start in Dubai and that cost him.
#12 Whitmore is as consistent as they come but has drawn wide in a big field for the first time since his Phoenix win 2 years ago.
#8 Mitole has to prove himself either dueling wide through a hot pace and trying to last the extra furlong, or rate and win for the first time in his career.

Race 9:
#7 Casa Creed: Form and pan shot don't show it and can barely see it on the head-on view (noticed it from the chiclets), but he really ran into trouble on the turn two back. Was wide and without cover throughout last time but still grinded his way to the line when others would have folded. I like the freshening and can get another great stalking trip.
#2 Social Paranoia: Looks to have really stepped up from 2 to 3 and should be full of confidence after that win.
#10 Henley's Joy: Just had to wait for the split to open in the stretch and that might have cost him. Interesting to see Gaffalione end up elsewhere...
#1 A Thread of Blue: A threat to take them all the way.
Really like #13 as a bomb to put in the exotics.

Race 10:
#8 Manny Wah: Has had a lot of excuses in his career. Can just put a line through his last as he didn't get a clean run in the stretch. Two back had to work hard around the first turn. Got burned in a duel in the Street Sense. Etc. Has speed to stay in touch and has won at a mile.
#10 Instagrand: Do you want 6-5 ML in a tough race like this?
#3 Dream Maker: If they let him stride at will then I think the one-turn mile will suit him.
#7 Mr. Money

Race 11:
#9 Synchrony: Couldn't have asked for a better effort given the dawdling pace. Ran well in this last year and his form has held since then.
#12 Bricks and Mortar
#7 Prime Attraction
#11 March to the Arch

Race 12:
#19 Spinoff: Was always going to be best routing, so no surprise to see that performance in his 3yo debut. I thought the Louisiana Derby was a great prep for this...he was wide without cover throughout. He's improved with each and every start and if he continues that upward trend he will be very dangerous.
#7 Maximum Security: Won't get a soft lead like he got in the Florida Derby, but I'm not sure he actually needs it as he rated well in his second start. I think the fact he debuted for 16k is putting a lot of people off, but he's an undefeated G1 winner with numbers that are better than most of his rivals.
#17 Roadster: Finally showing his potential this year and the 10f trip shouldn't be an issue.
#20 Country House: Well-bred colt has a lot of similar characteristics as Instilled Regard, who I liked as a bomb to clunk up last year.
#10 Cutting Humor: If you put a line through his ridiculous trip at Oaklawn he's not that out of place.

Race 13:
#2 Get the Prize: A clear lack of pace in here, and from an inside draw they should send him given he wired them at 6f.

Race 14:
#7 Felix the Fox
#2 Ranger Up
#1 Rotation
#10 Methodical

Good luck!