9/19: Belmont Race 1 Lonesome Glory Steeplechase

[Flatterer]

The Lonesome Glory handicap returns as the final NYRA steeplechase of the year around 4 turns and 10 fences with a 5/8 mile run after the last fence. This is a very competitive race.

Racing over 2 miles, 1 pound in weight is approximately 1 length so #9 Winston C is going to have to run the best race of his life picking up 6 pounds off his last race, now carrying 160 and spotting the field 2 – 18 pounds. The lightweights have an advantage with #3 Surprising Soul and #8 Belisarius getting the biggest benefit. #8 Belisarius also possesses the best flat track speed.

#1 Scorpiancer has the highest rating at 154, with #9 Winston C and #4 Bedrock at 153. Next are #2 Moscato and #6 Redicean at 144, followed by #3 Surprising Soul at 139. The rest are 130 or less.

Race shape indicates the pace should be honest with #7 All the Way Jose going to the front and #3 Surprising Soul tracking the front runner. #1 Scorpiancer will be tracking the front runners and saving ground with #6 Redicean joining #1 Scorpiancer. After the first lap, #7 All the Way Jose will fade and #3 Surprising Soul will inherit the lead and try to open up on the field the last time down the backstretch. #3 Surprising Soul doesn’t have another gear, he just grinds away, so the only chance to hold off the flat track runners after the last fence is to open a big lead on the backstretch. All the closers will be battling for position over the final fences with #2 Moscato and #9 Winston C emerging with strong runs.

#5 Hinterland(2nd) does his best running on flat tracks and has a good chance to land underneath in the tris and supers.

This a tough race with several contenders that can win.

A) #3 Surprising Soul(Won $37.20), #8 Belisarius, #2 Moscato, #9 Winston C(4th)

B) #1 Scorpiancer, #6 Redicean

Good Luck at the races!