Saturday, 7/4: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 7/4/2020

Race 1- 1 st #8 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY 2 ND #1 REMOANE 3 RD 11 QUEENTIGUA

#8 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY improved on the class drop last time out and now faces a woeful field of 25k NY
bred maiden sellers. She has the meet’s top pilot again and the addition of blinkers should ensure she’s
involved from the outset in here. #1 REMOANE drops in for a tag and gets Lasix for the first time today for
trainer Tom Morley. She showed some life in her debut against tougher and fits nicely at this class level. #11
QUEENTIGUA goes 3 rd off a layoff after a good effort in early June and a dull one last time. She was too close
to the pace last time out and can be dangerous late today if able to settle and make one run.

Race 2- 1 st #1 BALLAGH ROCKS 2 ND #9 GO POKE THE BEAR 3 RD #4 CONVICTION TRADE

#1 BALLAGH ROCKS has clearly seen better days, but looks to be considerably better than his competition
today. He goes 2 nd off a layoff after running a game second last time out at Churchill and showed in that effort
he’s still capable of being competitive against to flight competition. The other half of this entry, #1A
TRIBHUVAN had an equipment problem in the Fort Marcy, but ran a race in his North American debut that
would win this race. #9 GO POKE THE BEAR was out-classed in the Tiller last time out and now drops in
class while cutting back in distance. He can be most effective laying back to make one run, which looks like
the plan today. #4 CONVICTION TRADE is a late runner who’ll need some pace help. He faced a tough field
last time headed by contenders in both the Poker and Manhattan later on today and figures to be set for an
improved run making the third start of his form cycle.

Race 3- 1 st #1 FRANK’S ROCKETTE 2ND #4 CENTER AISLE 3 RD #2 UP IN SMOKE

#4 CENTER AISLE is the popular alternative to #1 FRANK’S ROCKETTE, but the latter looks to have a
substantial pace advantage. She beat a weaker field last time out at Churchill and redeemed herself for a
defeat as the 7/5 favorite two back at Oaklawn. If able to get control from the outset, she’ll be impossible to
catch. The aforementioned Center Aisle was a popular pick against N1X competition last time following an
eye-opening debut win. She was away poorly and lost all chance that afternoon, and a slow pace further
worked against her. With an improved trip she can contend for top honors. #2 UP IN SMOKE has done well in
Florida against weaker and now steps up in class. She has a nose for the wire and that’s a positive, but she is
going to have her work cut out for her against the top two.

Race 4- 1 st #1 MR JAGGERS 2 ND #5 BAIL OUT 3 RD #3 RED STORM RISEN

#1 MR JAGGERS didn’t have the cleanest of trips last time out when he was away from the gate poorly before
making a big middle move into a slow pace. He flattened out late, but the subpar circumstances along the way
contributed. If he can get out of the gate in one piece he’ll be a pace player going a distance and trip where
speed is a weapon. #5 BAIL OUT will be overlooked in the wagering based on his low percentage trainer, but
he gets a rider upgrade off a big effort going 10 panels. He sat behind a breakneck pace set by an isolated
leader that day and stayed on well. He has talent and is another who’ll be involved early. #3 RED STORM
RISEN likely needed a race last time out when he wound up 4 th behind Mr. Jaggers. He was closer to the slow
pace in that affair before coming up wanting late and can be an early threat today if asked for speed by John
Velazquez.

Race 5- 1 ST #6 AMUNDSON 2 ND #8 ZOOMER 3 RD #7 FORTIN HILL

#6 AMUNDSON gets the nod reluctantly in a tough N2X optional seller. He was a dull third last time out when
rated off a solo leader, as this son of Curlin came up empty late. This spot is similar in that there’s one pace
horse towards the inside for him to chase. If he can effectively rate off of that rival, he’ll be very tough to beat
today. #8 ZOOMER was claimed last time out by Bob Klesaris off of a very solid effort against 40k sellers. He
was pace compromised that afternoon and still ran a game race, and the likelihood of a forced pace in here
only helps his chances. #7 FORTIN HILL is going to be favored here despite earning two victories to begin his
career against weak fields. He was bad in defeat at even money last time at Gulfstream and will need
improvement here to be a contender. There’s no value to be had either.

Race 6- 1 st #10 PUBLICATION 2 ND #2 L’INDISCRET 3 RD #7 LIZA JAMBALAYA

#10 PUBLICATION rallied gamely on debut when dismissed at 24-1 at Gulfstream to miss by a length.
Shortened up a furlong today, she’ll have ample time to get things moving in the stretch for the top turf trainer
in the land. With the normal improvement horses show from their debuts to 2 nd time out she’ll be a major
contender. #2 L’INDISCRET was shuffled out in crunch time of her debut before making a brief late move.
The cutback in distance is a tad surprising given her pedigree, but she showed enough life in the unveiling to
be given consideration here. #7 LIZA JAMBALAYA is a major pace player in her 2 nd start off a layoff. She
moved aggressively into a fast pace last time out at six panels before being overhauled late. The winner of
that heat came back to finish a game third against N1X foes here a week ago.



Race 7- 1 st #8 DANFUSI 2 ND #2 POINT HIM OUT 3 RD #4 DANTE’S FIRE

#8 DANFUSI made an easy lead last time out and wired a field of maidens that included subsequent winner
Barleewon. This son of Fusaichi Pegasus lands in a great spot for a runner with his style and hails from a barn
that is 21% with turf routers off of maiden wins ($3.27 ROI). If left alone on the front end, he’ll be a threat to
win right back. #2 POINT HIM OUT ran the best race of any participant in the N1X won by Graded on a Curve
from June 7. This son of Point of Entry broke from the outside and lost some ground on both turns. The inside
draw in his 2 nd start off a layoff will help his cause. #4 DANTE’S FIRE broke poorly last time and never
threatened and now gets a rider change to Irad Ortiz, Jr. That will certainly lower his price, and his best races
are not quite good enough to contend here. Tread lightly but plan on using him in a Pick 5.

Race 8- 1 st #9 VALUE PROPOSITION 2 ND #1 DREAM FRIEND 3 RD #2 VALID POINT

#9 VALUE PROPOSITION was a game winner against N2X competition last time out when he blew by the
graded stake placed Cross Border with great ease. He looked to be stakes caliber after an impressive debut
win and now looms one of the choices in this competitive Grade 3. #1 DREAM FRIEND is clearly better at a
mile than 8.5 furlongs and likely needed his last when he was 3 rd behind the top pick. He looms the controlling
speed today and has a very underrated pilot on board when it comes to pace types. If left alone, he might
forget to quit. #2 VALID POINT was bet down to favoritism against elders in the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile.
He was steadied in traffic late that afternoon but didn’t have the speed to get into a contending spot prior to
that trouble. He is a win candidate but has the look of a horse who’ll be over bet.

Race 9- 1 st #2 VEKOMA 2 ND #6 ENDORSED 3 RD #5 CODE OF HONOR

#2 VEKOMA crushed the field in the Carter last time out and now goes an additional furlong from a tricky
inside post. His immense talent and the manner in which he’s come back in 2020 make him a major player,
even if forced into being ridden aggressively early. His last was the best race run by any participant in here
and that is significant. #6 ENDORSED ran better last time than it looks on paper. He made a bold middle
move up the rail to wrest control of the Westchester before ultimately being overhauled by #5 CODE OF
HONOR. Both are win candidates today, and the latter will be a shorter price. That adds to Endorsed’s
appeal. ‘Code was stylish in victory, cutting down Endorsed handily with strides lengthening one-by-one. The
Dwyer, run at today’s distance, was one of his best efforts prior to the Travers, so this trip is potentially ideal for
him. #3 MCKINZIE is a major player given his talent and past exploits. He was unlucky to lose in this race last
year, and comes in off a game win against Grade II foes in California. His best makes him a contender, but he
may not be the same horse he was in 2019 and before.

Race 10- 1 st #2 ROCKEMPEROR 2 ND #7 DOT MATRIX 3 RD #5 DEVAMANI

#2 ROCKEMPEROR is unlikely to be the 5-1 he is on the morning line, but is still a major threat off a narrow
miss in the Charlie Whittingham. He is a late runner and will need some pace help today, but some of his main
rivals look like they are not going their ideal distance today. Look for him to arrive on the scene late. #7 DOT
MATRIX narrowly missed last time out in the Tiller. He made a bold, wide middle move that day in the teeth of
a strong pace before coming up just short. The 10 furlong distance is sure to be ideal, and he can be more
forwardly placed today under a generally aggressive pilot. #5 DEVAMANI ran just as well, if not better than,
#1 INSTILLED REGARD when they met in the Fort Marcy. This veteran French-bred will love the 10 furlong
trip and needs only a modest pace setup to be dangerous.

Race 11- 1 st #1 TACITUS 2 ND #4 MR. BUFF 3 RD #6 SIR WINSTON

#1 TACITUS has accumulated more excuses than Imelda Marcos has shoes. He actually ran a good race last
time out given he had no pace help and that he spun out wide on the turn. The addition of blinkers should
sharpen his early interest, and the 10 furlong trip also seems ideal. Look for him to pounce when ready from
just off the pace. #4 MR. BUFF is the one to catch as he looks to avenge a poor effort as a heavy favorite
against NY breds last time out. This fleet-footed son of Friend or Foe is at his best when he goes quickly on
the front end and that is likely to be the strategy today. Whether he can stave off Tacitus and #6 SIR
WINSTON like he did Backsideofthemoon and Adventist, he’s a threat to win. The aforementioned Sir Winston
had a great trip in the Belmont when he beat the top pick last year. This son of Awesome Again is a long-
winded grinding type who’ll put forth his normal run to get at least a piece and will be a square price to boot.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 188-41-29-23 $253.60