8/19: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 8/19/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 2- 1st #4 SIESTA KEW 2ND #3 RUBY STILETTO 3RD #6 SASSY BELLE

#4 SIESTA KEW is by Outwork, a second crop sire whose progeny have performed well as 2YOs. The dam here was a 2YO winner and this is her first foal to race. #3 RUBY STILETTO is by 19% debut sire Maclean’s Music and is out of a dam who has produced three winners. The worktab looks solid and this is a barn that can have one ready on debut. #6 SASSY BELLE is a home bred who drew favorably on the outside. Ultimately more distance may be to her liking.

Race 3- 1st #1 INGRASSIA 2ND #4 PUMA PANKU 3RD #4 STUNNING PRINCESS

#1 INGRASSIA is by Medaglia d’Oro, a 13% debut sire and is out of a dam who had modest success on the racetrack. This is her first foal to race, but the works are encouraging and ‘in Chad we trust’ in these events. #4 PUMA PANKU is the third foal to race out of a Grade I winner conditioned by Graham Motion. This filly is by Kitten’s Joy, who is still cranking out 14% debut winners. #5 STUNNING PRINCESS set a strong pace and held well to snag the place dough during a period when her trainer’s barn was quiet. She is a win candidate with any improvement off that performance.

Race 4- 1st #6 CURLIN GREY 2ND #4 SCARF IT DOWN 3RD #2 HOFFENHEIM

#6 CURLIN GREY finished with interest last time out when rallying into the teeth of a glacial pace. He now looms the one to beat for a barn that is heating up as the meet continues. #4 SCARF IT DOWN has never given the appearance of being a 9 furlong horse and did tire at once in his most recent start. That race, however, has been productive and the Orlando Noda magic has not worn off yet given the effort of Letmetakethiscall on Sunday. #2 HOFFENHEIM is now in the care of Wayne Potts and drops in class off a poor effort here opening weekend. It’s unclear whether this son of Midnight Lute can run anymore and he’ll be over bet, so handle him with care.

Race 5- 1st #8 FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2ND #4 GOLDEN DECISION 3RD #2 GO POKE THE BEAR

#8 FINANCIAL SYSTEM has a giant ‘for sale’ sign hanging on him as he moves down in class off a win. These connections spot their horses realistically, though, and this son of Twirling Candy clearly fits this level. He should get a big pace setup again and will be tough to beat if he duplicates his last. #4 GOLDEN DECISION made a big move from well off the pace two back to finish with interest then flopped going 12 furlongs last time out. This is the right distance and he’s another who’ll benefit from the expected race flow. #2 GO POKE THE BEAR cuts back in distance as well after showing speed and fading late against much tougher. The inside post is ideal and he will offer serious value at the windows.



Race 6- 1st #3 IN FRONT 2ND #1 RIVENDELL 3RD #4 JOYOUS TIMES

The best course of action here is to reject every runner from the 6th race on July 23. The two best options left are #3 IN FRONT and #1 RIVENDELL. The former was sharp in victory last time out on the cutback in distance and should be in a good stalking spot again today. Rivendell was an impressive debut winner in a race that’s proven to be productive. She should handle the extra ground without issue. #4 JOYOUS TIMES battled on the front end from start to finish last time out and is the one from that eyesore of a race that you can take.

Race 7- 1st #2 BLACKJACK DAVEY 2ND #1 GOLANI BRIGADE 3RD #5 QUICKFLASH

#2 BLACKJACK DAVEY cuts back in distance after going a trip that is simply beyond his scope. Trainer Linda Rice adds blinkers and is an astonishing 6 for her last 15 with dirt runners cutting back in distance and wearing blinkers for the first time ($4.64 ROI). #1 GOLANI BRIGADE returns off a lengthy break for trainer Chad Brown after breaking his maiden convincingly early in the 2019 Spa stand. This barn is 32% with dirt starters off 365+ day breaks ($2.12 ROI) and he still has plenty of upside. #5 QUICKFLASH has come up wanting in the late stages of his last three outings but appears to be the main speed in this affair. An aggressive ride will undoubtedly help his cause.

Race 8- 1st #6 TOBYS HEART 2ND #4 QUINOA TIFAH 3RD #2 JOYS ROCKET

If #6 TOBYS HEART runs the race she did on debut in this spot, she will win by the length of the stretch. This daughter of Jack Milton got out of the gate poorly, then made a bold and decisive move in upper stretch to win going away. She has a world of upside and seems to be training well for this engagement. #4 QUINOA TIFAH is a third time starter who’s moving to turf. The dam here was a turf winner and she has dropped a couple of grass winners. Notable to see Joel Rosario take the call. #2 JOY’S ROCKET is by a sire who has not produced a turf debut winner yet. She is out of an unraced dam who did drop a turf winner and the fact she handled synthetics is a good sign as far as turf goes.

Race 9- 1st #9 BROVIA 2ND #8 WOMEN NOT EASY 3RD #1 BIG AL’S GAL

#9 BROVIA received what could best be described as tepid handling last time out when 6th as the 7/2 second choice. He gets a rider switch to this barn’s main man and faces a field that’s arguably weaker than last time. #8 WOMEN NOT EASY ran into serious trouble last time out at multiple points in the race and now gets a rider upgrade. A return to the frontrunning tactics from two back would make her a major threat. #1 BIG AL’S GAL ran into enough trouble on debut to be given another chance and did show dramatic improvement at second asking. The rail draw at this trip for a horse with speed is ideal.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 234-49-39-36 $311.00