7/22: Saratoga Race 1 A.P. Smithwick Steeplechase Handicap

[Flatterer]

The A P Smithwick Handicap has 6 runners going over 8 fences.

No Lasix means the favorites #4 Redicean and #6 Gibralfaro will run without the medication which will make things interesting. Historically, light weights have an advantage. The softer turf also adds intrigue.

Looking at weight assignments, the most favorable are #6 Gibralfaro, #1 French Light, and #3 Baltimore Bucko. My rule of thumb is a pound is a length when they travel over 2 miles, especially on softer turf.

Here is a review of the field with NSA rating.

#1 French Light (124) runs well on flat tracks, displaying a powerful late kick after the last fence. Ran 5 times in Ireland carrying 160 pounds so no Point to Point runs this year but trainer Brion will have this one ready to go toting a light 144 pounds. Apprentice Condon jumps off #3 Baltimore Bucko for this runner.

#2 Cite (119) is overmatched but likes Saratoga with one jump win and one flat win. Return at Camden in May was needed but does not like soft turf.

#3 Baltimore Bucko (120) loves the soft turf, ran competitively in Ireland in the spring, easily won a turf flat at Winterthur over similar turf conditions in May, and just missed winning at Nashville in June in the fastest race of the day. Picks up 2nd leading rider Garner and carries 142 pounds light weight. There is a lot to like for this runner.

#4 Redicean (142) carries 154 high weight and will have to run his absolute best to win. No Lasix and less than stellar results over a yielding turf but did run within 5 lengths of 9 time winner Snap Decision at level weights last year.

#5 Galway Kid (132) carries 148 pounds and picks up 4 pounds from #6 Gibralfaro when he ran within a neck at Great Meadow in May. Eased in 2 of 3 races this year begs the question if he will finish. He ran well against Snap Decision at Saratoga while getting 9-12 pounds from Snap Decision last year but prefers Great Meadow with a gradual uphill finish instead of speed favoring flat tracks.

#6 Gibralfaro (133) carries 148 pounds and usually gets a check but has never won at Saratoga and last win was 2019. Does get a weight break from #5 Galway Kid so he should finish in front of #5. Leading rider Watters should use his early pace asset and be forwardly placed. I’ll wait and see if no Lasix makes a difference.

The race shape is a real head scratcher. Most likely it will be very slow early and mad scramble late. I know that doesn’t help. So the best late race pace are the light weights #3 Baltimore Bucko and #1 French Light.

Selections

A) 3 (WON) - 1 (2nd) $2Win $7.80 $1EX $17.80

Good Luck at the races!