10/6: Keeneland (Opening Day)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/C, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T ($1 P6, $3 Turf P3/5-8-10, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 L J's Emma 10-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Stone Silent 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Sassy Nature 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Isabel Alexandra 8-1 3rd


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

5: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-9-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x3 = 12 x $3 = $36


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Be aware of 'race to sell' specialist Ennis with fast-drilling Carolina Candy (20-1). Casse has a fast family firster in Easy Street (12-1)..

Best Value: #3 Carolina Candy 20-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Tammy Lynn 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Easy Street 12-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Berlaine 10-1 4th


7th: Phoenix (G2), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Sibelius is coming around and now is the time to get him (12-1)..

Best Value: #3 Sibelius 12-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Doctor Oscar 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Gulfstream Way 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Nakatomi 4-1 2nd


8th: Jessamine (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible group to separate where fillies like Appellate (10-1), Bella Haze (10-1), Toupie (20-1) & Moonlight Gambler (30-1) have legit cases to be made for inclusion..

Best Value: #5 Toupie 20-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Crown Imperial 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Appellate 10-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Bella Haze 10-1 4th


9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Not that it makes any of them a certainty, but McPeek (V V's Dream, Shimmering Allure) and Cox (Alpine Princess, Emery) have won 4 of the last 6 runnings of this. (And Mark Casse the other 2). There also hasn't been much of a pricey winner in the last 6 years with Motion's Dancing Rags ($26.60) jumping up over Daddy's Lil Darling (9-2) and Diadura (7-2)..

Most Likely: #5 V V's Dream 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Brightwork 9-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Candied 6-1 WON ($10.16)
Exotics Use: #1 Alys Beach 20-1 3rd


10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Yikes. Tough nightcap. 9/7 KY Downs ALW key for this with Beuys (7-2), Chasing the Crown (9-2) and Underdressed (12-1) the exiting triple. Script (15-1), who won here a year ago, a player off the break. Golden Alchemist (5-2) the one to beat. Point Me By (10-1) looks competitive. Drakon (8-1) a big danger if drawing in..

Best Value: #2 Underdressed 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Chasing the Crown Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #13 Drakon 8-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Script 15-1 4th


P5 Grid:

6: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 2-9/SCR-13 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

7: 3-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
10: 2-9/SCR-13 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x5 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (A-A-C-A): 3x2x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (1-3-7 in 9th)


Good luck!
Steve