11/29: Churchill Downs (6th-12th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/N2X,3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Clyde's Got a Gun 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Johny's Fireball 6-1 WON ($8.26)
Exotics Use: #6 Idratherbeblessed 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Camp Hope 8-1 10th


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Divine Gal could come back a better filly today..

Best Value: #3 Divine Gal 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 The Big Calhouna 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Balladry 5-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Intermittent Fast 3-1 WON ($6.94)


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Inscrutable group.. Four of these (4-6-9-10) just broke their MDN's which frequently turns the light on and augers for better no matter what the competition looks like on paper..

Best Value: #10 Thanks Frank 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Patch O'Brien 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Free Ramblin Man 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Twirling Troillet 4-1 WON ($6.78)


9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Reagan's Flame 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Amber Cascade Late SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Sultry Lass 4-1 WON ($4.82)
Super Add: #5 Cat's Cave 7-2 3rd


10th: Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Hi-5)

Kehoe Beach the one to catch and beat, but as noted Tuesday on ATR, 15-1 is nutty on Simply in Front..

Most Likely: #3 Kehoe Beach 3-1 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #10 Simply in Front 15-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Dancing N Dixie 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #12 Poolside With Slim 6-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

6: 1-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
8: 1-6-10 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 3-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 3 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x4x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x2x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4-7 in 8th)


11th: Clark S. (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

There's plenty of pace involved here. Looking for a bit of a collapse..

Most Likely: #3 Crupi 4-1 3rd-Up from 4th
Next Best: #6 Hit Show 3-1 5th-DQ'd from 3rd
Bezt Value: #8 Red Route One 8-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Most Wanted 7-2 2nd


12th: MSW-R$50k, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Bermuda Blitz 7-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Steppe 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Akinmusire 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Big Lambros 12-1 12th


P5 Grid:

8: 1-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-6 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
12: 2-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-5 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

9: 3-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-5-6-8 (A), - (B), 7-9 (C)
12: 2-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAAA): 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (7-9 in 11th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve