Becoming a better handicapper!

It seems everyday books, blogs, websites, touts and services are coming up with new methods to predict the outcome of thoroughbred horse races. The newest from Brisnet regarding pace pars, plus and minus, is excellent, yet many others are nebulous in scope and unreliable in practice.

While handicapping will never be a sexy exercise, and the amount of talented 'cappers out there has never been greater, good solid returns can still be achieved for those that correctly interpret the myriad of data available. Certainly winners are selected from a wide variety of methods, but employing the following step by step approach will lead you to picking more winners, whether you are just starting out or a grizzled veteran.

While the DRF is a neccessity, a tool I am lost without is a piece of strong construction paper slightly darker in color than the form. Two red pens, one felt, one fine point, a yellow flourescent highlighter, and other colored (red, blue, orange etc.) highlighters, the type used to highlight textbooks are other useful implements. The paper and pens are certainly optional but will improve your game if used. The paper helps separate the three facets and helps you analyze the horse and its past performances in chronological order. The biggest mistake in handicapping is to work backwords. Always start your analysis at conception, then work to the present, and the construction paper helps you stay focused.

The three facets of proper handicapping are identifying the task, the applicants, and their resumes/past performances. I am going to play the Fairgrounds late pick 4 Friday and will use that sequence to explain. If the handicapping appears primitive and without long study, it is; but please bear in mind I will spend an additional five or six hours of examination, and the purpose of this post is the method. I will post the play and more complete analysis here early tommorrow afternoon.

Leg one, (race 7) Take your construction paper and look only at the race conditions or "task". About eight and a half furlongs, on the turf, for maiden 3yo fillies, under 122 pounds with the rail at 15 feet. Understanding the conditions will give the handicapper some direction in what they are looking for in a potential winner. A horse almost certain to be on the ticket is Jacks New Cat. Using the construction paper look at "the applicant" anotherwords his breeding, sales history and connections.

Note he is bred to go long, probably on grass and brought a decent price at auction while consigned by a reasonably prominent Oklahoma operation. Also Greg Whitehead is his owner, Paul Murphy trains and Gerard Melancon is listed to ride. By all means use your flourescent pen to highlight first Lasix.

Again using your paper check out Jacks' resume ( previous starts and works). Always go as far back as possible and for Jack' he worked a bullet three furlongs in September at Louisiana Downs. He had two 30 day gaps in his works (never a good sign) then was rushed into his debut after a good blowout. As his odds suggested and works confirmed he was off poorly and slow to get his coordination yet finished very well behind a good looking Juddmonte firster. At first glance somewhat penalize his late close due to the leader Mount Glitter blowing a three length lead in the stretch, also use your yellow pen to highlight Mount Glitter (who came back to win on Jan 29th) on both Jacks' pp's and those of number 6 Fiera Diva.

Race eight: The task...3yo's which are nonwinners of two races or which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred. Weight 122. I would use my yellow pen here to highlight non winners of a race "at a mile or over since January 16 allowed two pounds, such a race since then 4 pounds"! Immediately notice Assmussen takes a huge edge in that he qualifies for the weight off, and, gives a leg up to the bug, so in at a featherly 113!

An applicant: Ketchikan: Big sale price, from potent connections, Larry M on the reride. Personally I find the Tomlinson numbers without merit but they are there. Also the logo indicates Triple crown nominated.

The two start resume and work history (bullet at CD in July) certainly points out a colt with a future.

Race Nine: Three different conditions. Entrants are tagged for 50K OR are nonwinners of four races OR are nonwinners of three races other than...maiden, claiming, starter or statebred.

The applicants/entrants include Golden Glen and he is pure race horse. I would highlight in yellow the weight he carries 114 because of Talamo. Also of note although off topic, is his owner Stony Oak farm, located near Paris Ky much of the movie Seabiscuit was filmed there.

10) 3yo maidens going one mile restricted to statebreds.

Pelto a homebred, highlight first Lasix. As for his resume or race record he has had one eventful start. Note this Mutkaddim colt broke from the one hole and had an eventful journey. Horses are herd animals and this colt may well have become claustrophobic when trapped inside. In this and similar cases upgrade the impact Lasix may have. Also notice that he finished second to John's Baby and several others come out of that race. I took my red highlighter and highlighted John's Baby in each of those horses pp's. I used my blue highlighter to highlight Ovie who beat a few of these. Handicapping is about comparing horses and this highlighting technique takes no time and will pay for itself quite quickly.

I hope I explained this method clearly enough, although have some doubts. Tommorrow's play may clear up any gray areas. While not a relevation it is solid in theory and has proven itself in practice. BBB