Opinion of the Best Handicapping Tool

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

thanks.....I was noticing that you dont buy that a key race is a race where winners are multiple next time out. Are you saying that a key race needs more than two winners next out or bold like the quick sheet does or are you saying that you need to judge a certain level of performance in all of the horses at the same level (MDN clain, alw..etc) of racing? (like the majority of the horses in the race run a new top if you forgive the TGH reference)

Do you think there is an accentuated bounce factor for horses that are in these very competitive races because the drain is likley to be more in a hotly contested race. eg A horse that comes out of a 6F "key race" that has a par of "X" that actually has numbers in say 3 horses 20% above expected par or beyer. do you think those horses are good plays against in sprints next race within 3 weeks?

Do you have some kind of software that keeps track of these races or are they just in the AS computer of PP's?

And yes I have considered decaf on days I am not seeing patients........hope I make you laugh!!!

I basically believe that any shortcut is a road to losing....and defining a race a " key " race simply based upon results, without delving into the truth behind those results, is a shortcut and an error in judgement. What if two horses come out of a maiden race at Saratoga and break their maidens, at odds on, at Delaware and Phili Park, should that somehow elevate the status of the race they came out of? What if four of the returnees came back to improve their Beyer figs, or any figs you use, dramatically in their next start without winning, should one NOT perhaps elevate that race?

Once again, I basically don't believe at all in bounce, and think it is most likely the results of a good or beneficial situation one day and a less good one the next. Plus, I believe the prevalance of drugs has created many false performances that both can't be duplicated and physically affect a horse for its future starts.

Software? I'm lucky I can log into this place.