NTRA Pick 4 scope

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Saturday, April 16, 2007 Stakes Preview (NTRA Pick 4)

Leg A (KEE 8): 21st Running of THE COMMONWEALTH BREEDERS' CUP (Grade II), $400,000 For Three Year Olds And Upward, 7 Furlongs on the POLYTRACK

(1) BUDDY GOT EVEN (Maker/Velasquez) 15-1
Lightly-raced five-year-old makes his living jogging early and sprinting late, and it paid off for him in a three-length score at 9-1 two back at 6 1/2 panels on the TP strip in the $50,000 Forego. Last time out, he tried two turns, and he was closing late, but just didn't have the same punch, so now Stan Fulton and Becky Maker smartly wind him back around one bend. The frontrunners have been dying in the final furlong in many KEE races early on, so his style, plus the rail draw, could be very beneficial in this spot. Nonetheless, his top figure of 93 leaves a bit to be desired, so he'll have to produce a career-best effort to get his hoof raised. Perfect in two starts on the local surface, and the distance should be right up his alley. Not out of the question at a price, especially if the track is playing to closers.

(2) RIVER CITY REBEL (Hushion/Leparoux) 15-1
Son of Sahm has shown intermittent flashes of big talent, but he really broke through in his last start, blowing away $50,000/N2X optionals by 6 going six panels on the AQU inner and earning a big figure of 102 for his trouble. That was doubly impressive considering that it came off nearly five months on the bench. Hushion apparently has no qualms about shipping in, and he enlists the services of one of the tracks shrewdest riders. It's worth mentioning for sure that this gelding ran his last eighth in :11 3/5 last out, which is something one usually only sees on polytrack or turf, so his late kick should fit just fine in Sexy Lexy. Never tried seven furlongs, but ran well in a one-turn mile at BEL last summer, so he isn't totally out of his element today. Two swift local breezes. Leparoux don't ride no fool.

(3) STRAIGHT LINE - Scratched

(4) STEEL LIGHT (Clement/Gomez) 6-1
Chestnut six-year-old turned into a real useful turf runner late in '05, winning the G2 Nearctic at WO, but something went awry later on, and he had to be shelfed for over 16 months. Finally made his comeback in the G3 Appleton at GP last out, and ran a bang-up race, finishing a narrow second despite having traffic trouble on the far turn. He certainly fits figure-wise, but this thing is on dirt (or something similar), a surface he's unproven on. Note that when Gomez mounts Clement horses at KEE, the two usually have big success (5-for-9 recently), and there's certainly some precedent for turf-to-synthetic excellence. Love the fact that he hasn't been beaten more than 2 1/4 in seven North American starts, says if he handles the surface, he'll run his race. Wouldn't toss.

(5) RAMSGATE (Frankel/Flores) 6-1
Reeled off three straight victories on HOL synthetic, then jumped up to run a surprising third at 17-1 in G2 San Carlos at SA last out. He's been off since then, but has been working up a storm, including a local minute breeze on Monday. Flores is in for the ride and this is his only mount of the day, so he probably didn't take the trip for the frequent flyer miles. Versatility noted, and it's tough to ignore a 3-for-3 on synthetic surfaces runner. Don't think this race came up quite as tough as the San Carlos, either. Another contender.

(6) RYAN'S FOR REAL (Alecci/Panell) 12-1
MD runner has gotten better and better since slick $25,000 claim by connections, and most recently ran third at 9-1 in the G2 General George BC at LRL, then won a mile optional claimer in the slop at LRL last out. Tough to knock a horse who's in such great shape, but to be fair, he probably wasn't facing much of anything last time, and he appeared to benefit in the General George from leading through a slow opening quarter. While he doesn't have to be on the lead, it seems like he does his best running near the front, and not sure that's conducive to success on this track, especially with plenty of good closers ready to pounce. Logical, but value lies elsewhere.

(7) MIDNIGHT LUTE (Baffert/Prado) 3-1
Real Quiet colt made some noise with his airing in the G3 Perryville at this track and distance (about) last fall, and he's done nothing but improve since, closing to run a big third in the G1 Malibu, narrowly missing around two turns in the G2 San Fernando BC and running fourth in the G2 Strub. Now he steps up to face elders for the first time, but it wasn't exactly like he was facing weak three- and four-year-olds in the Strub series, and he peels back around one turn, which is where he seems to have more of a get-up. Tough to be all that thrilled that Espinoza isn't aboard, but Prado isn't a bad replacement, and this dude's style suits this track and race like a glove. Looks like the one to beat.

(8) SILENT NAME (Mandella/Nakatani) 4-1
Turf miler was last seen just missing in the G1 Frank Kilroe on the SA lawn, and now he'll try the synthetic stuff for the first time, although he's trained on it for a while. Very possible that Mandella is switching him to a surface he's taken a liking to in the mornings, but this seems more like a spaghetti-against-the-wall move. Does best running near the front, and probably will be a shorter price than warranted. Taking a stand against.

(9) DEEP CANYON (Wilkes/Borel) 20-1
Chester House son won on this surface at this distance last fall, but that was a much softer spot than this one. To his credit, he ran a big second against high-priced optionals at CD a race later with an impressive burst on the turn. Return race was lousy, but he had trouble, and he's been working well since. Should be ready for his best, and he's shown a strong kick, but this is probably the best field he's ever faced. Prefer others.

(10) GIN AND SIN (Miller/Bejarano) 20-1
Veteran gelding took a N1Y/$80,000 optional claimer at this track and trip last fall, but earned a relatively slow figure of 91 in doing so, and even with 40 races under the belt, he still has never cracked 100 on the BSF scale. Local works can't hurt, but this is a tall order. Slice at best.

(11) LEWIS MICHAEL (Catalano/Douglas) 10-1
It would be nice if these connections could figure out what they wanted to do with this horse. Long on turf, long on dirt, short on dirt, short on turf, back to short on dirt. Rahy's son must have his head spinning right now. Has always seemed to be a cut below his competition, and even though it's interesting that he was in hand late in a close turf run, it'll probably be the same story again in here.

(12) HIGH FINANCE (Violette/Castellano) 8-1
Talk Is Money colt has always been a quick sucker, running a big 108 figure in an N2X win at SAR last summer, but he never has seemed to run those big races against the big horses, finishing tenth in the G1 BEL, fourth in the Perryville, second in the G3 Mr. Prospector and fourth in the G3 Deputy Minister. Violette may well have booted Bejarano off for Castellano, but not crazy about Rafi ending up elsewhere, and the 12-hole doesn't exactly get the pulse racing. Will probably have to be used early on a bit too much as well. Certainly could win this, but there's much better value in other places.

2 - RIVER CITY REBEL
Leparoux doesn't ride lames at KEE, gelding closed fast off the bench
7 - MIDNIGHT LUTE
Would feel better if Espinoza was aboard, but still the horse to beat
5 - RAMSGATE
Perfect on fake stuff, Flores in for mount, strong kick
4 - STEEL LIGHT
Turfer ran big in return, scary if he takes to polytrack

Leg B (KEE 9): 83rd Running of THE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (Grade I), $750,000 for Three Year Olds, 1 1/8 Miles on the POLYTRACK

(1) ZANJERO (Asmussen/Gomez) 8-1
Pricey yearling buy came on well in the fall, winning an N1X at CD at 8-1 and running second to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the G2 Remsen. He picked up right where he left off at the beginning of this season, running third with a poorly timed ride in the G3 Risen Star, then closing to be third in the G2 LA Derby. Now he makes his third start off the winter break, and needn't improve too much off his top figure of 93 to matter in here. Scored by a neck in his lone start over this surface, and he's been working locally for the last few weeks. The extra 1/16 should only help him, but with all of that said, this is a bit of a class hike and he'll have to hope for some quick early splits. Rail draw certainly doesn't hurt. Needs a bit of a jolt to contend for the win, but it's certainly plausible that he clunks up for second or third at a decent number.

(2) DOMINICAN (Miller/Bejarano) 10-1
Surprised a few by running third at 30-1 in last fall's G2 KY Jockey Club, then surprised in his return only in how easily he won, rolling by 5 in the $100,000 Rushaway at TP. Lone try at KEE was a win, but not a particularly quick one, although he was racing against the grain on the lead. Tactical speed should serve him well, and he doesn't need a big figure jump from his 95 in the Rushaway to contend in here. Intriguing alternative to the favorites.

(3) LOVE DUBAI (Maker/Mena) 30-1
Ran on the synthetic stuff a bunch in England, winning a few route races in the process, so distance won't be a problem, but quickness might be. Loosely translated, his highest BSF in England was an 80 on grass, and a 70 on the dirt. His non-effort in the G2 IL Derby doesn't inspire much confidence, either. First-time Lasix probably will help, but not enough. Pass.

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