CD and the Preakness, interesting data

[somerfrost]

This was posted at The Homestretch...it refers twice to data found at Dr Roman's site (when it says, "can be found here). The main point is the relationship of the CD of contenders to that of the average Preakness winner. Again...for what it's worth. Comes up with the horses most of us would pick anyway!


Whirlaway

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Posts: 955
(5/7/07 1:53 pm)
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The Center of Distribution and the Preakness
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This research was fun, it always is. Interesting what the numbers may tell us here. First a quote that can be found
here.


" To illustrate the main point, among horses with a DI of exactly 3.00, those with at least 10 points in the Brilliant category of their DP have an average winning distance (AWD) of 7.88 furlongs. Those with less than 10 points in the Brilliant category have an AWD of 8.01 furlongs. Similarly, among horses with a DI of exactly 2.00, those with at least 10 points in the Brilliant category of their DP have an AWD of 8.25 furlongs. Those with less than 10 points in the Brilliant category have an AWD of 8.43 furlongs. Not surprisingly, a large component of inherited speed is an asset in shorter races. Although the average DI is the same for each respective group, we do see real differences in the average CD. The first group, those with DI 3.00 and at least ten Brilliant points in their DP, has an average CD of 0.89. The second group, with less than ten points in their DP, has an average CD of 0.81. Similarly, those with DI 2.00 and at least ten Brilliant points in their DP, have an average CD of 0.65 while those with less than ten points in their DP have an average CD of 0.56. The principle here is that the relationship between the DI and CD is the direct consequence of how the aptitudinal points are distributed within the DP. Furthermore, it confirms that the CD is a more accurate measure of relative distance potential than is the DI."


Of particular note is the last sentence. " Furthermore, it confirms that the CD is a more accurate measure of relative distance potential than is the DI." My focus here is on the CD. Now take a look at the DI and CD of possible Preakness contenders.

Name, DI, CD

CP West 2.00 0.61
Chelokee 3.57 1.06
Curlin 4.00 1.05
Flying First Class 4.00 1.10
Hard Spun 2.67 0.66
King of the Roxy 3.00 0.90
Sedgefield 3.00 0.91
Slew's Tizzy 2.00 0.67
Starbase 4.60 1.14
Street Sense 2.14 0.68
Teuflesberg 2.27 0.78
Xchanger 3.00 0.83

Look at the data found here paying particular attention to the CD of PIM, which is 0.71.
Based on the data only five horses fit the DI/CD frame. Of these five, three fit the CD frame. Of those five, four possess Dominant Classicity (*), indicating they should run beyond their numbers.

CP West 0.61 *
Hard Spun 0.66 *
Slew's Tizzy 0.67 *
Street Sense 0.68 *
Teuflesberg 0.78

Now I'm no Dosage expert, never will be. And as they say anything can happen in hoss' racin', but I sure got a good laugh out of this one. I thought Hard Spun was of some concern in the Derby, little did I know the exacta was looking right at me. Good job pamela. The data in this research tells me Hard Spun, Street Sense and Slew's Tizzy in the Preakness. It'll be interesting to see how they run on the track. That should be about it for me. The waiting is the hardest part ...