Only one new shooter has a prayer in the Preakness....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

And his trainer is on the fence between a start in the Preakness, or a start in the Barbaro stakes on the undercard.

Chelokee looks like an improving horse at least. Had he run in the Kentucky Derby, he'd have been the only starter in the race to fit the following pattern.


Trend: Must meet all of the following in career start #2.

* Start must come between Sep 20th-through-Nov 25th

* Must win the race by a margin of five lengths or more.

* Must run a Beyer figure of 85 or better.

* Race must be at a distance of 7 furlongs or further.


2003: Only Funny Cide fit the profile. He won and paid $27.60

2004: Two horses fit the profile. They being Smarty Jones and Lion Heart. They ran 1st and 2nd, at odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and made up a $65.20 exacta.

2005: Two horses fit the profile. They being 50/1 shot Giacomo and 22/1 shot High Limit. Giacomo won and paid $102.60

2006: Two horses fit the profile. They being Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat. They ran 1st and 2nd. The exacta paid $587.00

2007: No Derby starter fit the profile. Combined record of 7-4-2-0

More than having a cooky trend in his corner, Chelokee has improved with each start this year, and an arguement could be made that he'd have been right there in the Fla Derby, had he not been shut off.

However, a horse likely to improve or not, the Florida Derby form looks worse after Saturday, and this horse needs marked improvement to contend with the top three. Being trained by Matz, he'll also likely suck up some sentimental money as well.

A new shooter has finished either first or second in 6 of the 7 runnings of the Preakness this decade....I would be shocked if anyone other than Chelokee manages to do so this year...and I highly doubt he will do so either.