If you are interested....

[justindew]

I wrote my analysis of the Preakness for a newspaper called Metro Phildelphia. I'm not sure how racing-savvy the audience is, so I tried to keep it simple while trying to offer some insight....

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In a blog entry that I wrote on April 6th, I named eight horses that I was still considering for my Kentucky Derby Top 3. Two of the eight got hurt and did not make the Derby. Three of them ended up being my final Top 3, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Zanjero, and Any Given Saturday. They went on to finish 8th, 10th, and 12th. The remaining three were ultimately left out of my wagers for a number of reasons.

Their names were Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin, and they would go on to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Those three will face each other again on Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, and they figure to get the bulk of the support at the betting windows. Street Sense has been installed as the 7-5 morning line favorite, with Hard Spun the second choice at 5-2, and Curlin next at 7-2.

Now, a look at the field for the Preakness Stakes:

1) Mint Slewlip- He has never run against horses of this caliber, and has never put forth an effort which would suggest that he is capable of being competitive versus this bunch. He’s more likely to finish last than in the top three.

2) Xchanger- His connections should be commended for skipping the Kentucky Derby with this guy. After his win over this surface in the Federico Tesio, a case of Derby Fever looked likely. But they resisted. His aforementioned win in the Tesio was a step in the right direction, but he has yet to run well around two turns against top horses. He needs more than one in here to take a step backwards if he is to be a factor late.

3) Circular Quay- He ran an OK race in the Kentucky Derby, and was one of few moving forward late in the game. A fast pace in here will help his cause, but note that he was not even mentioned as a possible Preakness starter until this week. Late additions never inspire much confidence as far as I’m concerned, but outclasses more than half of the field. By default, he will be a factor.

4) Curlin- Regardless of how you feel about his Kentucky Derby effort, I think you have to be concerned that this guy is going to regress at some point. He has been asked to do a lot in a short period of time, and that’s a tough burden for any horse without two-year-old foundation. A win here would really stamp him as an exceptional racehorse. He may be that anyway, but I’m taking another stand against this guy in this spot.

5) King of the Roxy- He ran a solid 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, an accomplishment that would normally mean a guaranteed start in the Kentucky Derby. Nevertheless, his connections decided to skip it, and point for the Preakness. He really hasn’t done anything wrong this year, although his final 1/8 mile at Santa Anita was quite slow. That’s not exactly what you want to see from a horse with questionable two-turn ability. If you think he has improved since early April, he’s worth a bet. It’s your call, and your money.

6) Flying First Class- D. Wayne Lukas returns to the Triple Crown scene with the winner of the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs a week before the Derby. This horse was on the path to a start in the Kentucky Derby, but twice turned in very poor efforts against top company, and was given a chance to go a shorter distance. It was a good choice. Like King of the Roxy, Flying First Class has shown more ability sprinting than routing. Lukas is a master, and I hate to leave him out of any race, but it would take a huge step up for this horse to win here.

7) Hard Spun- It happens just about every year. A horse runs a huge race in the Kentucky Derby, but comes up short. That horse then goes on to the Preakness, gets overbet because of the Derby effort, and loses again. I think Hard Spun fits that trend perfectly. He ran a great race in the Derby, possibly better than Street Sense. But I think that was THE race for him. I think that was his best shot. Now I think he regresses at low odds.

8) Street Sense- The reasons that I didn’t like him in the Kentucky Derby are the same reasons that I do like him in the Preakness. He is fresh, and the Derby win took less out of him than his top competitors. The smaller field should mean less risk of trouble, and with the poor quality of the rest of the field, he could take a slight step back and still win. He is listed at 7-5 on the morning line, and if those odds hold, he’s a steal. At even money, he offers fair value.

9) CP West- He is yet another Preakness entrant who has yet to do anything at all around two turns. His trainer, Nick Zito, won this race in 1996 with Louis Quatorze, and jockey Edgar Prado is one of the best. I think CP West has more potential than the other newcomers, and the price will be generous. He might surprise a few people, and a board finish is not out of the question.

My pick to win is Street Sense. I think Hard Spun will disappoint a lot of people, and I think Curlin needs a rest. Circular Quay should be passing horses late, and CP West has a chance to outrun his odds.

1. Street Sense
2. Circular Quay
3. CP West