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Old 03-28-2008, 10:14 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
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Default Does overhyped really mean overbet?

Since GP reconfigured the track in 2005, and did away with it's old speed biased ways....here are the lightly raced, fairly unacomplished types, who made huge 3yo debuts in elongated one-turn races at GP. Note how underrated these "overhyped" horses were from a betting standpoint next time out....

2005: Bellamy Road returns at a mile and wins his 3yo debut by 15 lengths with a 96 Beyer off of a 5 month layoff. Next out, he wins the Wood by 17 lengths at 5/2 odds. He was joint favorite with the "proven" and "classy" Going Wild...who was beaten about 40 lengths at 5/2.

2006: Showing Up wins his debut big in Mid-Feb with 97 Beyer at 6.5f - is entered in a one-turn mile next out and wins with a 101 Beyer at 8/5. From there he wins the Lexington at 3/2 in just career start #3.

Bernardini returns from a 2 month layoff to win an alw race at one mile by 8 with a 90 Beyer in just career start #2. He wins the Withers next out as the 9/5 2nd choice.

2007: Curlin wins his debut by double digits with a 101 Beyer. He comes back to win the Rebel as the 5/2 second choice.

2008: Hey Byrn wins his 3yo debut by 14 going a mile with a 97 Beyer. He returns to win by 6 lengths as the 2/1 second choice.


Big Brown is obviously similarly lightly raced and "unaccomplished" - and while he may be overhyped....he's still obviously the best horse running in the Florida Derby.

The post will hurt him - but his races are real.

If anyone remembers any other lightly raced and unaccomplished 3yo's that returned to run Beyers of 90 in elongated one turn races at GP, let me know who I'm forgetting.
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