4/12: Keeneland; Oaklawn; Premier P4

[Kasept]

Arrive at penultimate Derby Trail Prep Weeekend on nice roll after $2,500 P4 score Thursday and assorted casharoos Friday at Aqueduct. Went 5 of 6 in the P6 carryover try, misreading the 7th race, though conso's $172 covered the $144 play. Closed out the afternoon with dynamite trifecta with returnee and "Best Value" play Fast Learner tripping $711.00 hit on $21.00 win mutuel. Earlier, "Best Value" suggestion Watch My Lass came through in 6th under the shadow of the wire at 7-1 ending an $83.50 P3 run. Hope you did well!

Fabulous Blue Grass Day Keeneland card, Arkansas Derby and Premier Pick 4 linking the 2 ovals' features are the focus today...


KEENELAND


4th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 9.75f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Equitable 2-1: Mott/Kent D. appear poised for big day.. 3rd
Best Value: #4 Marchfield 5-1: Casse lauded Classic winner on ATR Friday.. 5th
Next Best: #5 Tiger Woodman 5-1: Rusty getting best yet from 6yo.. WON
Exotics Add: #9 Blazing Dynamo 15-1: JJT saved best for this meet.. 6th


5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Temper Temper 9-2 WON-DH (ON DQ)
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #7 Skylighter 5-2 6th
Exotics Add: #11 Embellish 5-1 8th


6th: 12th Jenny Wiley (Gr. II), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Precious Kitten 3-1: Always ready but note soft turf concerns.. 5th
Next Best: #5 Bit of Whimsey 4-1: Tagg miss got better as '07 rolled on.. 6th
Best Value: #3 Sealy Hill 8-1: Canadian Champion never misfires; Yielding the "?".. 10th
Exotics Add: #9 Lady of Venice 4-1: Now with KMc; Likes it soft.. 3rd


7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Terrific betting race with deserving, and potentially tough to deny, Pletcher favorite.. Race kicks off tremendously difficult P4 sequence with headscratching Commonwealth and possibly chaotic Blue Grass following.. Should Ready's Echo faulter, payoff in Quad will skyrocket..

Most Likely: #6 Ready's Echo 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Palmers 10-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Cardinal Hill 15-1 4th
Exotics Add: #3 Limestone Edge 15-1 WON


8th (4:40): 22nd Commonwealth (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Thousand Words 7-2: Frankel opts here; Drew ideally for stalk and go run.. 5th
Best Value: #6 Rebellion 6-1: Liked surface in Gr. III Phoenix 2nd last fall.. WON
Next Best: #1 Xchanger 4-1: Serious Shuman grey working super for return; Pilot hot.. 10th
Exotics Add: #9 Doppio 15-1: Gaines unconscious now.. 8th

.10 Super Play: 6-10/6-10/1-2-5-7-8-9/1-2-5-7-8-9 (2x1x6x5 = 60 x .10 = $6.00; B/U w/ 2x6x1x5 = $6.00)


9th (5:18): 84th Blue Grass (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

1. Cool Coal Man (Desormeaux/Zito) 4-1: Simple Derby tuneup for FOY winner or intended for serious try?
2. Kentucky Bear (Theriot/Baker) 50-1: 3rd Only 3rd career start, but recall debut and 4-1 price in Fountain..
3. Cowboy Cal (Velazquez J/Pletcher) 15-1: 2nd Todd/Stonerside running out of chances; Turfy sort a price..
4. Stevil (Bejarano/Zito) 30-1: 4th Zito grey has been slow to improve this spring, but 9f should suit..
5. Monba (Prado/Pletcher) 15-1: WON Hype type Starlight grey gets shot to make it happen; Broke MDN here..
6. Big Truck (Coa/Tagg) 6-1: Tagg's Empire bred falls into Cool Coal Man territory; Tuneup or Keyed up?
7. Pyro (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 1-1: Co-Derby choice with Big Brown obvious with handling of the poly..
8. Stone Bird (Lanerie/Lukas) 50-1: Desperation time for DWL; Marylou's Grindstone bay most likely for 12th..
9. Medjool (Baze M/Hofmans) 30-1: Monarchos red synth proven; Poised to rally here at bonus tote; Big shot..
10. Miner's Claim (Husbands/Casse) 20-1: Rushaway placer also slick on rubber; Casse loved him from Day 1..
11. Halo Najib (Gomez/Romans) 15-1: Poster horse for poly-preference; Great at OTC, TP, KEE; Blah on dirt..
12. Visionaire (Lezcano/Matz) 6-1: Hard to know where this one fits on poly and after TX Wildcatter flop..

Selections:
1. #7 Pyro 9th
2. #9 Medjool 7th
3. #11 Halo Najib 6th
4. #10 Miner's Claim 5th


10th: ALW/N$Y, 4+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 French Beret 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Lattice 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Skipped Bail 6-1 5th
Exotics Add: #1 SCR
High 5 Play: #12 Pickapocket 5-1 WON


<$100 P4 Play:

7. 3-5-6-7-9-11
8. 1-6-9-10
9. 7-9
10. 4-11

6x2x4x2 = $96



OAKLAWN PARK


7th: 11th Northern Spur, 3yo, 1m (P3, Super)

MOST LIKELY: #7 FERRAGAMO 9-2 7th
Next Best: #2e Kalarikkal-Jayaraman entry 7-2 8th/9th
Best Value: #1e Asmussen entry 9-2 2nd/5th
Exotics Add: #3 Ide Like a Double 7-2 3rd


10th (5:58): 6th Instant Racing, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Sky Mom 2-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Rasiera 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Euphony 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #3 Richwood Silver 12-1 9th


11th (6:44): 72nd Arkansas Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

1. Victory Pete (Potts/Barba) 12-1: Unknown bay was 3rd in Sham.. really; Tries dirt..
2. Tres Borrachos (Baze T/Greely) 20-1: 3rd Bargain gelding strictly a 2nd tier soph..
12f. Shekinah (Emigh/Stewart) 12-1: Stewart field runner drew in, drew well, and isn't impossible..
3. King's Silver Son (Quinonez/Asmussen) 6-1: 1 of Asmuss' 3; Dangerous with any further improvement..
4. Gayego (Smith/Lobo) 5-2: WON Lobo followed through coming here; One to beat in 'real' main track bow..
5. Isabull (Doocy/Hobby) 20-1: Nice Holy Bull bay hasn't progressed much this spring..
6. My Pal Charlie (Leparoux/Stall) 12-1: Ubber game in LA Derby placement; Gets stalk opp here; Using..
7. Blackberry Road (Borel/Carroll) 8-1: 4th at NOLA in better than looked effort; Closer may get lost on board..
8. Liberty Bull (Razo/Amoss) 6-1: Amoss grey gets better and better; Needs the cash and threat on best..
9. Golden Yank (Sterling/Thomas) 15-1: Bay had rough Rebel; Near KY on earnings and rooting for board hit..
13f. Ablaze With Spirit (Berry/Asmussen) 12-1: TX-bred OK in HOU/SUN stakes; Is any Asmussen a shock?
10. Z Fortune (Albarado/Asmussen) 9-2: 2nd Forgetten Asmussen-Zayat GSW is KD bound with 5th or better..
11. Indian Sun (Migliore/Hendricks) 12-1: 4th Bro. Derek team colt a frustration; Will pop somewhere, sometime..
14f. Jazz in the Park (Mena/Barnett) 12-1: 'Talking horse' landed in field & brutal post; Punchers' chance..

Selections:
1. #4 Gayego WON
2. #10 Z Fortune 2nd
3. #7 Blackberry Road
4. #6 My Pal Charlie


<$100 Premier P4 Play:

A. (KEE 8) 1-6-9-10
B. (KEE 9) 7-9
C. (OP 10) 2-4-7
D. (OP 11) 3-4-10-12f

4x2x3x4 = $96


Good luck!
Steve