my Selection is... a loser!

[Bobby Fischer]

Race2. loser!

Race10. loser!

Sound familiar?? It should.



The heart of the game is centered around selecting losing favorites.

I do not see this stressed enough by the experts. This is what horseplaying is really about. This fact is not obvious to all players. Most players do know that there is more to selecting wagers than picking winners(directly). Common knowledge says that win% does not equal profit. The odds are so important. Logically it might then be about selecting longshots, but it isn't.
Mathematically horseracing is about meeting a value demand in order to prove a wager is profitable. Losing favorites cause the majority of these market situations.

Select losing favorite, and assess a wagering strategy.
The strategy of the horseplayer is to use accurate information and apply his talent with that information to accurately select losing favorites. He then must evaluate the available wagers and make decisions on what if anything fits, that meets his value and probability demands.


Do one thing and do it better than anyone else!

Select losing favorite, and assess a wagering strategy.




Vulture list May 03,2008
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Cowtown Cat =Timeless Native Stakes. Estimated as a low quality racehorse vulnerable to finishing completely out of the money in this 5horse field. Possible wager types= Throng to win, 4others Exbox, Throng top/bottom of the3others.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...&alternative=1

Colonel John, Pyro = Kentucky Derby. Estimated as tosses from exacta. Possible Wager Types = Big Brown to win, place or show







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quick appendix


Losing FAVORITE = Each wager type pool is a market!! When a lot of money in that market is on low probability outcome(s), the market becomes inneficient.
In the simplest form, it is a single favorite. For whatever specific reason this horse will be bet much heavier than what you have estimated were his chances of winning that specific wager type. An underlay.

The Vulture list = every horse who wins "impressively" but fails to impress you or strikes you as a low quality horse. Every fan favorite. Every horse who is placed in the "wrong" situation (surface distance class etc..). Any suspect favorite in general, deserves special attention. The bulk of your handicapping efforts are channeled at these horses. You must be objective, accurate and never "hopeful".

TALENT-Talent of a horseplayer(aside from status) is often thought of by other talented horseplayers as the ability to study races and make accurate estimations from every piece of information.
In modern handicapping, a good deal of this is visual information of race replays. Watching the actual sport over and over with a trained eye and drawing information and opinions.
An additional aspect that many often include into their video analysis (live viewing as well) is an understanding of horse physiology. A player may have a list of negative signs like a stride abnormality, or breaking through the gate, that call for wager cancellation.
The player may also be trying to formulate an opinion of a horse's physical makeup and talent. Horses vary as much as football players, and horseplayers evaluate horseflesh as scouts evaluate men in games and draft combines.
More common and more available to the public, but also very important is making good use of the past performance information. This information includes everything you see on the form, as well as derivatives such as pace or velocity.
Video analysis can represent 75% of some modern horseplayer's focus.


WAGERING
Win wagers are perhaps the most basic and actually one of the best wagers, particularly when considering hit probability. A full command of all or most available wager types and pools will give you more plays. For all wagers I believe in estimating value and considering the hit% as well. When estimating the price care must be taken to make a low estimate allowing for prices to drop.

value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
Win Wager Example: Pyro and Colonel John have a small win probability. I am tossing both from the exacta. Big Brown has an estimated 45% chance to win the Kentucky Derby
his odds are 5/2 or 2.5-1. a low estimate of 2.3-1(small pools require more room for error!).
$2price= $6.60
hitProbability=45%
value= (6.60*0.45)/2 =1.48
My value demand is 40cents and $1.48 exceeds that demand so I will place a win wager.

How much?
to determine betsize I factor hitProbability again. This is my method to avoid ruin because I have a small bankroll. With a very large bankroll this step is less important.
edgefactor = hitProbability*value
edgefactor = 45%*1.48 = 0.66
For every 10 percent of "edgefactor" use 1% of bankroll
0.1*Edgefactor*BANKROLL=betsize
0.10*0.66*$2000.00=$132.00
so you would wager $132 to win on big brown.

additional example
value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
edgefactor = hitProbability*value
superfecta
structure: A x BC x BC x DEF = $6
hitProbability= .40*.30*.20*.35 = 0.0084 or 0.84%
$1SFC payout = $400 ... 2$Price =$400/(6/2) or 400/3= $133.33
value = $133.33*0.0084/2 = $0.55
edgefactor = 0.0084*0.55= $0.00462
\Summary
So what we have here is a Superfecta, with a pretty good value. It also comes with a relatively low hit probability. The low hit% is going to drive down the "edgefactor". Edgefactor is simply multiplying Value by the hit% to help weigh value with risk of ruin.
I advise using a minimum edgefactor for most wagers. With a very large bankroll , you may choose not to pass the really nice Value here. $0.55 (55 cents on the dollar) is a nice investment opportunity(remember you made conservative estimates and have the skill to be reasonably accurate on average). One approach is to use "edgefactor" to determine betsize.
For every 10 percent of "edgefactor" use 1% of bankroll
0.1*Edgefactor*BANKROLL=betsize= 0.10*0.00462*2000=$0.92
With my $2000 bankroll it is not a good wager for me. I can't make a wager with this system because the minimum $1 wager for SFC A x BC x BC x DEF=$6 and my formula says I should bet only 92Cents in this case! Pass.

edgefactor note - the edgefactor and specifically the hit% may be manipulated in situations where a very high value is offset by a low hit%. Strategies such as covering more horses or dutching may raise the hit%. This will lower the value but sometimes raise the edgefactor enough to qualify a wager without going below your value demand.



MENTAL SIDE
The Capper's Pyramid


..............................[talent].......................

..............[concentration]....[patience].............

.....[viable approach]...[self-control]...[desire]........

[information]..[initiative]..[accurate-thought]..[chief-Aim]