5/22: Arlington (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Was taken out of late Belmont P4 immediately Wednesday with Clement's March to Victory, and scuffled around until hitting major paydirt with the nightcap trifecta. Tom Bush's Imperial River ($20.00) was the 8-1 'Best Value' player and my 2nd tab, along with 'Most Likely' obvious favorite Rockon Rockoff (9-5), must-include 'Next Best' ML second choice Dos Hombres (7-2) and 15-1 'Exotics Add' Challenger's Song.

Imperial River screamed "Play Me"... Bush has been red hot already at the young Belmont meet winning with 4 of his first 11 starters, and here he was dropping the gelding from MSW company to Maiden Claiming, (a move that DRF told you works 28% of the time for a $3.51 ROI). He also tabbed Cornelio Velasquez for the ride (2/5 at meet-$5.40; 25% L2Y-$2.64), who was an upgrade from Carol Cedeno. Blinkers were going on, and while they aren't Bush's best angle, they had to sharpen this son of Hussonet who had failed to really run in his first 2 career starts.

But there was something else, and it only showed up modestly as a DRF trainer statistic: 2nd off layoff. DRF showed you that Bush was 15% second off breaks of 45-180 days for a $1.60 ROI. Thoro-Graph's Trainer Profile stats showed that in fact Bush was running 26.3% wins/51% ITM-2nd/layoffs (of any kind) with a $2.60 ROI. That's a big difference and was instrumental in keying the 9-1 overlay 1st and 2nd with the other three choices. The triple returned $490.00 on the $24 wager when Imperial River won with Dos Hombres (4.00-1) second and Challenger's Song ($15.10) third.

Hope you did well.. Some OK racing at Chicago today with the late Quad comprised of 4 straight mile events..


ARLINGTON PARK


6th: IL-bred MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pullmanite 2-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Star Victor 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Flyabovetherest 3-1 4th
Exotics Add: #7 Iron Vow 6-1 WON


7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 O'Connell's 3-1 8th
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #7 Florida Jack Pot 5-2 4th
Exotics Add: #5 Very Capo 6-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e SCR (#1a DOES go.. Info was wrong on AP website) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wine and Dyne 4-1 WON
Next Best: #2 SCR


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super)

Don't trust the favorite Winner's Story here at all..

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Best Value: #2 Molander 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Beaufort 4-1 WON
Exotics Add: #3 Lord Vader 9-2 3rd


Good luck!
Steve