Derby prep pace figs & observations

[The Indomitable DrugS]

This is on the basis of actual pace figures - not naked raw fractions a lot of people like to guess with. The pace call of each race is 6fs, a length equals about 2.5 points.


Dirt: (11 preps) Ranked from Fastest Paced to Slowest Paced

#1: Fountain of Youth (114) Leader at pace call: This One's For Phil

#2: Rebel (105) Leader at pace call: Old Fashioned

#3: Southwest (101) Leader at pace call: Silver City

#4: Florida Derby (94) Leader at pace call: Quality Road

#5: Gotham (89) Leader at pace call: Mr. Fantasy

#6: Risen Star (84) Leader at pace call: It Happened Again

#7t: Holy Bull (83) Leader at pace call: Bear's Rocket

#7t: Sam Davis (83) Leader at pace call: A P Cardinal

#9: Louisiana Derby (79) Leader at pace call: Papa Clem

#10: Tampa Derby (78) Leader at pace call: Join In The Dance

#11: Lecomte (75) Leader at pace call: Au Moon


Fake dirt: (7 preps)

#1. Sham (103) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#2. San Rafael (97) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#3. California Derby (86)

#4. El Camino Real Derby (84)

#5. Lane's End (83)

#6. Bob Lewis (73)

#7. San Felipe (69)


Some observations:

* Friesan Fire has run in 3 VERY slow paced races in a row - and was stalking just off the slow pace each time. Dunkirk clearly ran faster pace figs in his two GP routes than FF has in his last 3 races. Imperial Council ran a faster number in his alw race two starts back - and Win Willy - who was 7th at the pace call in his Rebel win - ran a faster pace number than FF has in any of his last three wins.

Just because perceived deep closers like Dunkirk, Win Willy, and Imperial Council have all been running faster pace numbers than FF - doesn't mean that you should expect them all to be in front of him after 6fs has been run in the Derby.

FF has a big pace number 4 starts back! He ran a 95 when 2 lengths clear on a very strong pace in a FG Alw race at a mile - however, that razor sharp pace did him in and Uno Mas ran him down in the stretch and FF could only manage a 79 Beyer in defeat. In other words .. FF can run a lot faster early on than he has been running ... but if he does .. instead of blasting home he will stagger home.


* The two fastest paced synthetic track races were both won wire-to-wire by The Pampelmousse. The two slowest pace ones were both won by closer Pioneer of the Nile. It is very smart for Zayat to run a rabbit in this race .. because if PotN would be taken out of his comfort zone to keep The P honest .. he could come up flat like Point Given or Afleet Alex did in a pair of very fast paced Derbys. By sucking way back early and letting his sprinter rabbit put pressure on his rival .. he becomes the most likely winner of the Santa Anita Derby.

* Old Fashioned has shown the ability to run very fast early in his last two races - and three starts back he showed totally cyclonic late speed when allowed to walk on an uncontested lead.

He ran a 62 pace and 100 final while on the lead in the Remsen. While denied the early lead by Silver City in his two preps, he's run a 100 pace and 92 final in the Southwest and a 105 pace and 98 final in the Rebel.

He will never get another chance to go as slow as he did on the lead in the Remsen - but he's been running way too fast early the last two times! He would have been totally loose on the lead in every other Derby prep except the Fountain Of Youth. If he's able to get clear early with a pace fig in the mid 80's in the Ark Derby ... look for him to take a good run at the 105-to-110 Beyer range. Possibly even higher if the track happens to be speed biased.