Sloppy Track for KYDerby?

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Although this is about exact as picking a cold super, if it's accurate, we could be in for some mudders on May 2nd. Check out:
http://www.dryday.com/30dayWeather/U...ouisville.html

With very few preps run on wet, sloppy or muddy tracks, this will be a skull buster. I can just hear the excuses about "my horse just couldn't get hold of that track"...blah...blah...blah.
To my best recollection, some contenders with demonstrated off-track form include:
DESERT PARTY 1ST 07-24-08 SANFORD S MUDDY
FRIESAN FIRE 1ST 03-14-09 LOUISIANA DERBY SLOPPY
WIN WILLY 1ST 03-14-09 REBEL S GOOD

How much stock do you put in sire ratings and other breeding data? So who is your sloppy Derby horse?