7/25: BEL (P4); DMR (P6); CBY (Crown)

[Kasept]

Glaring omission of Frank Martin Flying Zee winner in Belmont nightcap Friday cost me a shockingly overlaid $786.50 P4 payoff. Patron Saint didn't look any better than several when capping initially, but not getting a chance to ammend the plays post-scratches/changes hurt, as Sebastian Morales had been booted in favor of Ramon Dominguez... a significant upgrade. Still not sure why the sequence, with $7.90, $7.10, $10.80 and $4.40 had such inflated will pays. Good news on the day were back to back exotics sweeps mid-card including the $200 tri and $380 super in the 7th.

Later at Del Mar, took deflating beat at the wire on 15-1 single Ale's Pride to squash P6 C/O try and sizeable win bet. Discussed at length with National Turf's Bob Selvin on "At the Races" Friday, Ale's Pride worked a little too hard to make the lead to have enough in the defining stages. This was a heartbreaker with a $33.20 win price hinged on the outcome. Caught three winners in the sequence after that, but no one negotiated the sextet successfully and a $382,000 carry is available today. Expect a $2,000.000 pot for the good skien today.

Hope you did OK Friday and are ready for a fun Saturday that includes Dee Tee running Aldebutante and Kickin N Screamin at Arlington, the Belmont P4, Del Mar C/O and Claiming Crown at Canterbury!


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sydney Road 8-1 WON
Next Best: #11 New Yawker 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Prince Dubai 20-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Mr. Petersson 12-1 6th


8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Stormy Success 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #7 Extra Zip 8-5 WON
Next Best: #9 Gold Pageantry 6-1 9th
Super Add: #2 SCR


9th: 93rd Copaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Wynning Ride 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Livin Lovin 3-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Funny Moon 5-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Don't Forget Gil 15-1 2nd


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fair Catch 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Winloc's Big D 3-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Donquityerdayjob 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 New York Bobby 8-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 10-11
8: 1-7
9: ALL 3
10: 1-2

2x2x8x2 = $64



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific and challenging ALW to start P6 with many impossible to toss..

Most Likely: #4 Great Siege 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Trumpet Player Jay 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Dehere Again 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Fiery Trippi 12-1 10th


6th: 24th Fleet Treat (R), Cal-bred 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 ULTRA BLEND 7-2
Best Value: #7 Pretty Unusual 10-1
Next Best: #3 Century Park 5-1
Super Add: #8 Suacey Evening 5-2


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutally difficult set of nicely-bred and well-meant looking babies..

Most Likely: #10 Tiny Woods 5-1
Best Value: #2 Majestic Peak 8-1
Next Best: #8 Sidney's Candy 8-1
Super Add: #11 Wings of Sound 12-1


8th: 36th Eddie Read (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Monterey Jazz 2-1
Best Value: #7 Richard's Kid 20-1
Next Best: #4 Thorn Song 8-1
Super Add: #3 Global Hunter 12-1


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bet On Victor 3-1
Best Value: #1 Spirit of Cochise 12-1
Next Best: #7 Position A 6-1
Super Add: #6 Best Dressed 12-1


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Quality Plus 2-1
Best Value: #6 Class Dismissed 12-1
Next Best: #5 Big Mahogany 7-2
Exotics Use: #14 (AE) Barney Bass 5-1
Super Add: #4 Bonkersforbinkers 10-1


$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7-8-10
6: 6
7: 2-8-10-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 10

6x1x4x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-7-8-10-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 5-6-10

6x1x4x3 = $72



CANTERBURY


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: CC Iron Horse, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Calm and Collected 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Bright Hall 4-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Mr. Meso 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Mr. Grumpy Stripes 10-1 5th


4th: CC Tiara, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #1 Love to Tell 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Mizzcan'tbewrong 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 R Vicarious Girl 3-1 4th


5th: CC Rapid Transit, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Grand Traverse 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Pete's Pride 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Max Ahead 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 All Joking Aside 5-1 4th


6th: CC Express, 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

#8 Ready's Rocket a major reaction candidate.. Cover in P4 but bet against within race..

Most Likely: #9 Chasing the Prize 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Mojito Man 10-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Norjac 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Jacob's Run 12-1 6th


7th: CC Glass Slipper, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Met a Miner 3-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Gatorize 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Miranda Diane 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Thunder and Belle 6-1 2nd


8th: CC Emerald, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #3 Hard Top 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Gran Estreno 4-1 WON
Next Best: #7 T Harry 12-1
Super Add: #12 Spicy Dubai 12-1


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-4
6: 2-8-9-10
7: 3-4-7
8: 3-6-7-12

3x4x3x4 - 144 x .50 = $72


9th: CC Jewel, 3+, 9f (DD, P3)

Small field but a super competitive race..

Most Likely: #2 Furthest Land 5-2
Best Value: #3 Repenting 8-1
Next Best: #6 Glamour Guy 7-2


10th: Lady Canterbury, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Euphony 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Adhsilver 6-1
Next Best: #4 Happiness Is 7-2 WON
Super Add: #7 Lady Carlock 4-1 3rd


Good luck!
Steve