8/19: Saratoga (Day 19; Adirondack; C/O)

[Kasept]

Spa session commences its' second half Wednesday with $42k+ carryover and excellent Gr. II filly stake featured. Wrapped Week 3 in pretty much the same fashion as majority of the previous 17 days, with enough Best Value/Most Likely winners producing modest plus results. First half of meet ended with bankroll in profitable position (+$1,100), though the overall feeling is one of missed opportunities for big scores. The $2,500+ in 2 first half P4 hits pretty well covered the 18 days of Quad play, so the profits have been accrued elsewhere. Come away from the meet's opening half feeling like I'm grinding out any success, with 6-7 tabs on isolated big price winners, assorted trifecta key hits and $1,000+ in rolling P3's Sunday 8/16 the difference between being up or down. May not be a flashy way of winning, but it beats the alternative.

Carryover looks very tricky Wednesday, but what a great way it would be to start the run to Labor Day... Hope you've been doing well and are enjoying "At the Races" and Derby Trail.com coverage of Saratoga. Good luck the rest of the way!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2X Dressmaker 5-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Afleet Alexandra 12-1 WON
Next Best: #9 R Vicarious Girl 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Sneaky Girl 5-2 2nd

$1 Trifecta (6-10-9) Paid $235.00
$1 Exacta (6-10) Paid $49.50


2nd: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Chippewa Court 6-1 WON-DQ'd to 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Speechifying 5-2 2nd-Placed 1ST
Next Best: #1 Fashion Queen 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Victory for M'lady 7-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $14.30
$1 Trifecta (6-2-4) Paid $47.75
$1 Daily Double (6-6) Paid $32.00
$1 Superfecta (6-2-4-1) Paid $130.00


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Rodman 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1e Levine entry 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Banking Holiday 5-1 4th

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $6.60
$1 Pick 3 (6-6-3) 3 Correct Paid $124.00


4th: OC/C, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Miss Diane 3-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Union Waters 2-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Vivid Colors 5-2 3rd


5th: From New York to Old York, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 More to the Story 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Starfish Bay 8-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Gemswick Park 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Huge 12-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-6
3: 1-3
4: 1-3-4
5: 1-4-7-9

3x2x3x4 = $72


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Overnight thunderstorm may have finally soaked the turf course well enough to give it.. well.. some give, after 10 days of hard/fast, speed-favoring lawn conditions.. Tricky and deep set here that could be make/break race in P6-C/O sequence..

Best Value: #1 Redreamit 15-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Why West 7-2 4th
Next Best: #10 Bum Bum 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sobee 12-1 7th


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Pretty B 5-2 8th
Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 3-1 4th/5th
Best Value: #9 Beautiful Song 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 House of Grace 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (8-9) Paid $258.00


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Aunt Mabel 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Akonite 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 First to Come Home 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Skip Away Belle 8-1 2nd


9th: 93rd Adirondack (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Beautician a SCR due to a colic episode Sunday night..

Most Likely: #1 Dashing Debby 7-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Sassy Image 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Camille's Appeal 5-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Decelerator 9-2 9th

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: 1-9 with 1-4-6-9 with 1-4-6-9 with ALL (2x3x2x6 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super0

Fascinating state-bred turf route may not be what it seems it all. Several in here 'have a look' at prices including lighter-raced runners from winless barns (#5 Regal Refrain-DiPrima @ 10-1; #10 Ryan and Jack-P. Kelly @12-1) out of same race that produced NYB stake placer Livin Large. #7 Bullstar (2-1) and #4 Wiseacre (7-2) were 2nd/3rd in that event of course, and are likeliest types, but both have had their chances (8th and 7th starts respectively) and failed.. Recalling that these nightcaps have produced some oddball results, note grass bullet from 50-1 #6 Nugget of Wisdom..

Best Value: #1 Monastir 5-1 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Bullstar 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wiseacre 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Mr. Hooker 4-1 WON


$200 P6 Play:

5: 4-9
6: 1-5-10
7: 1-4
8: 3
9: 1-9
10: 1-7

2x3x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4
8: 2-3-9
9: 1-6-9
10: 1-5-7-10

2x3x3x4 = $72


Good luck!
Steve