10/22: Keeneland ($33k C/O)

[Kasept]

Talked up but then abandoned Boxitup in Belmont 5th Wednesday, a move that cost an opportunity to be P6 live going into the nightcap. Third choice won that quashing P4 play and conso try, and despite rather chalky result, still felt like I missed a quality opportunity to hit. Hope you did well with the other solid results.

Keeneland P6 clicked up another 50% to $33k for Thursday, but still might not be that approachable given the consistently quirky Lexington outcomes. Thoughts below, but with insanely deep G3 Sycamore in the mix, P3/P4 plays may be the prudent call. Featured Knickerbocker (G3) at Belmont looks like Proudibnsky's race to lose, but there are some pricey exotics players to consider. One interesting price at NY as well today...


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Workingontherailroad 1-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Cabazon 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Twisting Road 6-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Six Shots 6-1 2nd


5th: ALW/C, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Starfish Bay 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Dashel 10-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Brezing Rain 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 She's Extreme 12-1 10th


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very confusing group.. Will take flyer that Agastache gets easy early lead and keeps going..

Best Value: #1 Agastache 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Quietly Mine 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Vicarian 4-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Free Brave 7-2 6th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Afleet Maggi 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Encore Saritta 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Attempt to Name 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Lunar Mist 12-1 8th


8th: 15th Sycamore (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Thoroughly entertaining race.. Use some prices..

Best Value: #11 Gentleman Chester 8-1
Most Likely: #9 Cloudy's Knight 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Winchester 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Tiger Woodman 20-1


9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Turwada 7-2 7th
Best Value: #10 Drink With Pride 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Mort's Legacy 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 SCR
High 5 Play: #11 Hang 'Em 20-1 11th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3
5: 2-3
6: 1-6
7: 1-4
8: 9-11-12
9: 6-10

2x2x2x2x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: ALL
7: 1-4
8: 5-8-9-11-12
9: 6-10

7x2x5x2 = 140 x .50 = $70



BELMONT -- SPOT PLAY


5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

BEST VALUE: #9 TEMPEST STORM 12-1: Contessa-Winning Move filly looks overlaid at number as she circles back towards best efforts mid-summer which came over this strip. Expect performance worth keying around.. 3rd
Most Likely: #8 Granted Tiger 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 West Ocean 8-1 WON
Super Add: #1 More to the Story 9-2 6th


Good luck!
Steve