11/11: Aqueduct (P4); Churchill (C/O)

[Kasept]

Hope everyone enjoyed Cup and did well. As feared, Saturday was much more difficult to negotiate than Friday, though using Furthest Land in P3's helped keep Day Two give backs to a minimum. Overall, it was a profitable weekend, and I hope the ATR guest list leading up to Cup and the selection suggestions helped you score. Back to the day-to-day prospecting with Churchill, Aqueduct abnd later this week Hollywood as the targets. Good quality action at the Big A and a $20,000 carryover at 4th and Central today in fact...


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Siren's Call 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pleasant Sister 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Autumnlady 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 First and Foremost 12-1 10th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Crazy Catlady 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Paraiba 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Gran Appeal 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1e McLaughlin entry 4-1 7th/9th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Sky's the Limit 8-5 6th
Best Value: #6 Rodman 5-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Well Positioned 3-1 2nd


9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Will protect against ML choice #10 Bishop of Nola (5-2) in multis, but he's a bad favorite.. Watch to see if either of the deep AE's draw in. Either are preferable to Bishop of Nola..

Most Likely: #7 Thunder Chief 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Joba 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Kuggerand 4-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Tom Kitten 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $26.25
$1 Trifecta (3-7-6) Paid $112.50


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-9
7: 1-3-4-6-8
8: 7
9: 3-5-6-7-10

3x5x1x5 = $75



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Yikes 3-1 WON
Best Value: #12 Pennyroyal 6-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Chubby 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Baby My Darlin' 5-1 7th


6th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Maggi 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Reversed On Appeal 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Silent Candy 8-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Oscar de La Thorn 10-1 3rd


7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Home Field 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Stamp 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Myroslaw 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Gresham 8-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Pick and Pray 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Darlin' Diane 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Honor Hymn 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Edacious Reality 8-1 4th


9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Tight Precision 4-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Banker's Choice 7-2 10th
Best Value: #5 True Birkin 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Phola 5-1 2nd


10th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #7 Foolish Promise 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Tricky Chief 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Dr. Rythym 6-1 WON
Super Add: #13 (AE) SCR
High 5 Play: #5 Sun Button 6-1 11th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $65.90
$1 Trifecta (9-3-7) Paid $331.00
$1 Pick 3 (9-10-9) 3 Correct Paid $103.20


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 10-12
6: 2-5-7
7: 4-5-8-10
8: 4-9
9: 10
10: 3-7

2x3x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-8-10
8: 2-3-4-6-9-10
9: 10
10: 3-7-9

4x6x1x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve