11/13: Churchill ($51k C/O)

[Kasept]

Another solid afternoon Thursday with $414 P4 at Aqueduct leading the way. Nice $158 triple in the 8th was a bonus too, and if you were inclined to play the super, keying off Most Likely on top winner Base Commander returned $644 ($1). Frankly, Best Value second choice Gone Missing gave Base Commander everything he wanted in that race, and a win by him would have driven the P4 price sky high. Just as Churchill saved the bacon Wednesday, the New York play carried the day as $16 on top Best Value HONCHIS'N PONCHIS (Romans) was the only real quality opinion I had at Louisville. Hope you did well Thursday!

Hollywood opener later tonight and Downs action this aft the focus with Dee Tee's KICKIN N SCREAMIN in the 3rd and a $51,500 carryover starting an hour later.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Hold'em Tiger 7-2 8th
Best Value: #2 My Boy Jo 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Devilish Berti 2-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Apache Honor 4-1 3rd


6th: OC/C, F&M-3_+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult short field event where you may need to spread to protect in the P6..

Most Likely: #6 Lady Carlock 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Day of Victory 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Tammy's Victress 9-2 4th
Super Add #5 Dreaming of Liz 5-2 2nd


7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Rather ridiculous race.. Would any jump up winner really surprise?

Most Likely: #4 Jolly 'Ol Nick 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Q Mac's Phone 5-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Wayfarer 5-1 4th
Super Add: #11 SCR


8th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Quick to Charm 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Motown Shuffle 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Ocean Ace 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Memorial Maniac 6-1 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Hamazing Destiny 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Keefer 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 John Kelly 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Be Me 4-1 3rd


10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 No Such Word 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #10 Silky Serenade 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Lily Meadow 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Reagan's Wildcat 5-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #13 Goldbud 15-1

$1 Exacta (8-10) Paid $51.70
$1 Trifecta (8-10-6) Paid $333.90
$1 Superfecta (8-10-6-9) Paid $1,109.40
$1 Pick 3 (2/6/8) Paid $157.80


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-3-8-10
6: 6
7: 3-4
8: 2-4-6
9: 6
10: 6-8-9-10

4x1x2x3x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (3/2/3/2,11,12,13,14/6/8) Paid $300.60 (5OF6)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-7-8-11-12
8: 2-4-6
9: 4-6
10: 6-8-9-10

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/2,11,12,13,14/6/8) Paid $512.40


Good luck!
Steve