Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
What's happening with oil is basically unprecedented. You clearly had a bubble from late 2007 to mid 2008 when it peaked at $147/barrel before the bubble burst and it came crashing down; all the way to the $34-$35/barrel level. The crashing of a bubble isn't the surprise; the fact that oil has more than doubled since the trough is a huge surprise. Look at the Nasdaq and Nikkei following their implosions. We didn't see any kind of move out of them like we are seeing in oil now. Probably only a matter of time before we see $100/barrel again. Will the libs still blame Bush?
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The Nasdaq closed at 1114 oct 2002. It closed today at 2395...more than double the bottom. Is it close to the bubble high? No...but still twice the bottom.
The 34/35 dollar barrel level was achieved in the midst of a global economic meltdown and definitely would not have gotten so low so fast in normal times. This wasnt merely the bursting of a commodities bubble. It was more the result of the most severe recession in the last 70 years.
The fed's monetary policy is what is unprecedented. The surprise is that the monetary policy coupled with the declining production of non-opec countries and the rising demand worldwide has not caused oil to shoot up even HIGHER.
Interesting that over the last 30 years, the two highest spikes in oil prices came during the administrations of BUSH I and BUSH II. Yeah, I bet its just a coincidence.