5/29: Belmont (7th-10th); Monmouth (6th-12th); Churchill (8th-11th)

[Kasept]

Took beat on Churchill P4 when Lukas' Hamazing Destiny wired sprint set in the feature, and found the result tough to understand considering the Salt Lake 4yo had shown no speed since last November. Romans' West Pointer Belo Sorto was a complete flop as the top tab, somehow unable to keep up with the mundane :23.2, :46.2 opening quarters set by the winner, when in his skien of 4 straight wins he's been attended sub :45 half miles. Hope you did OK. There's plenty of terrific racing the next 72 hours with stakes action everywhere you look, so despite what feels like an unending period of bad decisions and frustrating results, I'm anxious to dig in the heels and find some spots to score.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Guiltless Pleasure 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Jacky Juice 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Rice entry 3-1 2nd/6th
Exotics Use: #5 Poivre's Girl 9-2 3rd


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Annoyingly deep race with a group of state bred lawn routers that are all bunched together talent-wise. You could conceivably use all of them..

Best Value: #7 Spa City Fever 5-1 WON ($18.60)
Next Best: #3 Quiet On the Tee 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Lonely Whistle 10-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Union Army 15-1 8th


9th: 60th Vagrancy (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Hour Glass 7-2 WON ($9.30)
Best Value: #7 Saarlight 9-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Tar Heel Mom 5-2 3rd


10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Solar Panel 7-2 WON ($9.90)
Best Value: #6 Barrel of Love 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1a Hear the Footsteps 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Settop 15-1 10th

$1 Pick 3 (7-2-2) Paid $135.75


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-5
8: 3-7-9
9: 2-7
10: 1-2-6

4x3x2x3 = $72



MONMOUTH PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Zermatt 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Always a Party 6-1 10th
Next Best: #10 A Wink and a Smile 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 My Mancita 20-1 11th


7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 He's So Chic 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #6 Lone Cypress 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Joey Carson 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Sabi Sabi 10-1 6th


8th: NJ-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

You can coo all you want about the large purse/large field expirement here at MTH, but giving away an $80,000 purse for this group is pretty silly. Nine of 14 entered coming in off layoffs of 120 or more..

Best Value: #5 Charmingmegan 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #12 Jazzy Jenna 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Iron Countess 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Roll Me Over 4-1 7th


9th: Lamplighter, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, DD, Super)

Super tricky group here with 3 first time turfers in the 1, 5 and 6 that could all be quite OK on lawn; Burning question is why is Gomez, 2nd on the 4 at KEE last time, on Larry Murray's MD invader here? Or is Pletcher simply returning DeCarlo for a stakes shot?.

Most Likely: #2 Lethal Combination 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Thunder Brew 5-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Bank the Eight 4-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Lighthouse Sound 6-1 5th


10th: J.J. Reilly H., 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Unwritten 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #3 Together Indy 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Joey P. 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1e Sleeter entry 6-1 7th/10th


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 8
7: 4-6
8: 1-4-5-7-12
9: 1-2-7
10: 1-3-6-8-10

1x2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


11th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Banker's Buy 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Very Sweet 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Joyce's Angel 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 American Romance 15-1 6th


12th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Adagio 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #1 Tactical Weapon 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Art Currency 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Danak 10-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-2-7
10: 3-6
11: 2-8-9-10
12: 1-2-4

3x2x4x3 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (7-6-10-2/3/7) Paid $306.70



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 22nd Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cash Refund 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Chief of Affairs 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Atta Boy Roy 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Riley Tucker 7-2 WON ($11.80)


9th: ALW/N2X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Jungle Tale 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Sheryl's Melody 7-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Ms. Thanksgiving 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Sparky's Dream 5-2 4th


10th: 36th Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (DD, Super)

Has gone unnoticed with the glut of stakes action this weekend, but this came up as a well-matched bunch and a fun betting affair. The Starlight-Pletcher fave is OK, but 8-5 is a little tough to swallow..

Most Likely: #4 Ailalea 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #5 Helen Belen 15-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Vis a Vis 3-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Fuzzy Britches 8-1 3rd


11th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Our Dancer 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Bred to Win 15-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Silver Bayer 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Saviano 8-1 WON ($11.20)
High 5 Play: #9 Won Happy Bachelor 12-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5
9: 2-5-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7
11: 1-5-6-7-9

1x3x5x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve