9/11: Belmont (Fall Meet Opener)

[Kasept]

Saratoga is in the rear view mirror now and focus returns to Belmont Park for the Fall Championship Meet. It was a sublime 40 days at the Spa of course, highlighted by a strong season of wagering and an emotional victory for Dee Tee Stables' Ausable Chasm on the season's biggest weekend. In addition to the fun card at Elmont, an eclectic slate of action at Delaware, Philadelphia, Presque Isle, Arlington, Turfway/Kentucky Downs and Fairplex all provide intrigue. Should be a great kickoff to the first weekend of Autumn!


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Alwaysonthemove 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Gold Cup Kid 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Fiery Rebel 15-1 WON ($33.60)


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting group with KMc's #4 Shaarat having advantage of start where she showed speed before being overhauled by runaway Nicks' miss that was subsquently sold and sent in Spinaway. Note sib power from #1 Atantic Voyage (full to the nice and very game Stormello) and #5 Mackeral Snapper (full to the fast and brittle Charitable Man). Via Thoro-Graph trainer stats, note that Mark Hennig (#6 Truffles, 10-1 ML) has has hit the board a remarkable 71% of the time with 2nd timers (58 starts) going off at 4-1 or less. Forestry filly won't be 4-1 or less here, but that stat represents 41 ITM finishes out of 58 starters... a stunning number to keep in the back of your mind when Hennig runners take money in their second outing..

Most Likely: #4 Shaarat 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Elegant Finish 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Atlantic Voyage 4-1 WON ($10.00)
Super Add: #6 Truffles 10-1 2nd


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Stones Throw 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Scotchmallow 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 D'argento 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Five Aces 6-1 WON ($17.40)


4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Fascinating race with 7 second time starters exiting 4 notable Saratoga baby events, and majority of them failed to take money in their debuts (including full brother of Any Given Saturday, #1 (POE) Heisman. At a glance, #2 Isn't He Perfect would look like a toss from obscure Doodnauth Shivmangel and saddled with largely inept Maylan Studart. But colt has worked eyebrow-raising 4 times since unvieling with two bullets, adds Lasix and should appreciate stretchout to mile being by Pleasantly Perfect. Is out of outstanding Chilean-bred Diamond A racemare that won 5 stakes including the Top Flight and Eatontown and placed in many others all over the US. Perhaps 50-1 and possible to bust up the joint..

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Heisman 2-1: Expect improvement from Any Given Saturday brother.. WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #2 Isn't He Perfect 30-1: Some things to like; See above.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Arthur's Tale 5-1: Albertrani happy Saratoga over; 3 for 77 last 90 days.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fusa Code 10-1: Mare was an obscure MSW.. 5th


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Papa Frita 6-1 10th
Most Likely: #1 Indian Bob 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #3 Cruzin With Cash 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Slight Fever 12-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4
3: 2-7-8-9
4: 1-2-8
5: 1-3-9

2x4x3x3 = $72


6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dougie 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Pernice 9-2 5th
Next Best: #2 SCR
Super Add: #3 Second and One 10-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 (POE) Fujita 8-1-SCR'D (Entrymate #2b runs) WON $18.80
Next Best: #4 Missle Motor 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Keechi Bullet 4-1 3rd


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Hard not to root for Aces Mark here as gelding battles back from injury while commemorating 9/11 deaths of NHLers Ace Bailey and Mark Bavis..

Most Likely: #1 Quick Money 5-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Aces Mark 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Late SCR
Super Add: #5 Jet to Classics 15-1 7th


9th: 52nd Bowling Green (G2), 3+, 11f-IT (DD, Super)

SCR #2 Grand Couturier..

Most Likely: #3 Al Khali 4-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #1 Simmard 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Winchester 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 SCR


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Real Rooster 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Beijing Blues 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Ex Pat 6-1 9th
Super Add: #11 High Prize 7-2 WON ($9.50)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-10
8: 1-4-5-7
9: 1-3-5
10: 10-12

3x4x3x2 = $72



DELAWARE PARK -- SPOT PLAY


11th: 17th Rosenberger Memorial, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

#6 Aquitaine (12-1): Rarely reach out for Matz runners, but this late-foaled Empire Maker daughter out of a Rahy mare is demonstrating the kind of rapid development you like to see when dabbling with 12-1 shots; Play in all slots.. 2nd



ARLINGTON PARK -- SPOT PLAY


8th: 76th Arlington-Washington Lassie (G2), 2yo-F, 1m

#7 Summer Savory (15-1): Stidham's Horse Chestnut filly out of Skywalker mare (!) jumps in class off near-miss debut versus lesser; Repeat or improvement makes her part of this set at a price.. 7th


Good luck!
Steve