11/6 (CD): Breeders' Cup Saturday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by HomerS

We will see. The odds on her last year were ridiculously low and that was on her home track. Because she won, the results focused players thought that made her a good bet, but her odds were crazy and think will be even more sothis time considering field is better, and will be on real dirt.

If she is anything under 5-1 (and I would think she will be 3-1 or lower) that pretty much guarantees overlays all around. Personally woulndnt touch her at anything under 12-1

Aren't all of the above reasons why she may not be bet as heavily this year ?

Last year the second and fourth choices were shipping in from europe and the third choice was the best 3YO who had never run on synthetics. There was no contender the public could embrace with confidence other than Zenyatta.
This year there are three strong contenders that people are more familiar with.
One of them consistently runs higher numbers than the field but does have some question marks concerning the added distance.

Another has defeated the first one, appears to have stamina based on his running style and will be at his track.

The third is an improving 3YO, proven on dirt, and the stablemate of a filly who gave the mare all she could handle at 1 1/16 miles.

There is a fourth horse who beat the second one at this distance but won't be taking his track with him.

It may be farfetched for me to believe that she won't be the favorite but choices 2,3,4 this year will be bet stronger than last year's group.