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Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....
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How is 5/2 ever a good price in a two year old race? Was Awesome Ashley a good bet at 5/2 in the Frizette?
These are TWO YEAR OLDS... anything can happen, and it usually does. You better believe 5/2 on Scat Daddy will be a tremendous UNDERLAY in the BC Juvy (and I actually think he's a decent horse.)
Those that bet down Nobiz to 8/5 were probably taking the worst of it, however considering he was 10 lengths faster than the rest of the field in his last start and the 2nd start of a horse's career is nearly always his/her biggest improvement, I can understand the favoritism. He had to run back to his last race to win, which is a reasonable assertation for an 8/5 favorite... he regressed about 3 lengths (probably the amount he lost at the start). If the public assessed his probability of winning properly, he was a 40% chance to win. Seems reasonable to me on the limited data available with this group. Scat Daddy was 5/2 not because he wasn't a quality runner but because he was uproven at a mile and didn't look to care for more distance in the Hopeful. If he was 8/5 instead of 5/2, we would be calling HIM an underlay.
End result, anyone who had the other 3 in the NTRA pick 4 and didn't use both in this race in equal amounts is an idiot (namely, me.)
10-16-2006, 11:27 PM
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