2/19: Fair Grounds (3rd-12th); Gulfstream (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Red Ace 4-1: Note bulbous 9/17 J-T tandem stat.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Rack Daddy 10-1: Chased Machen & more in bow.. 8th
Next Best: #4 Bind 3-1: Stall sharp with FTS; May want more ground.. WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #9 Saracen 9-2: Asked early, often in debut; May clear.. 3rd


4th: 24th Colonel Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Due Date 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #5 Don't Shoot 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Delano 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Royal Express 10-1 6th


5th: 45th Pan Zareta, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Beautician 4-1: Doesn't win often, but set up suits.. WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Eagle Putt 8-1: Back to top last; Primed to move forward.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Moontune Missy 3-1: Amoss & hood could wake her up.. 4th
Super Add: #6 Wild About Marie 5-1: Thrash-Thornbury 'now' filly T2D.. 5th


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #12 Grove Park 8-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Harvest Home 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Avenstoke 8-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Tucky 20-1 9th


7th: 30th Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo, 8.5f P6, P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Inglorious 5-1: Price generous on emerging miss.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Kathmanblu 6-5: Can't fault; May prove better as turfer.. WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Bouquet Booth 7-2: Has done little wrong since fall.. 4th
Super Add: #6 Tapit Dancer 10-1: Stoutly-bred Tapit steady 2yo improver.. 6th


8th: 26th Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Mission Impazible 3-1: Pletcher LA Derby winner 2nd/break.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Le Grand Cru 12-1: Classy 6yo dangerous stretching out.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Apart 2-1: Took time unwinding in return prep; Better today.. 3rd


9th: 24th Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, Super)

Head-scratchingly deep edition with 7-8 capable on best, so it's hard to take too short a number on a just-OK Loup Breton..

Best Value: #5 Sleepless Knight 8-1: Good spot for a fresh face.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Gran Estreno 5-1: Remarkable winning 8yo bow (G3 Bradley).. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dubious Miss 8-1: Saves ground; 2nd chance for Lanerie.. 3rd
Super Add: #7 Joinem 10-1: Sneaky, troubled 3rd behind pair above last.. 5th


10th: 38th Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Louisiana Derby lead up a corker in its' own right with full cast coming forward after humdrum, short field Lecomte 4 weeks ago. While the gate filled up with greater numbers, its' hard to get too far past McPeek's Rogue Romance and Howard's Machen. Sometimes the horses that look best on paper by virtue of running the fastest races coming in are just simply best. It feels like any of the other serious contenders will need to display more than they have heretofore to best the top pair..

Best Value: #6 Machen 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Rogue Romance 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Mucho Macho Man 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #9 Justin Phillip 8-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 3-4-5
9: 1-4-5-7-8-10
10: 1-5-6-9

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


11th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

As wild a wagering affair as you're liable to see. Lots of big prices on sophs with good grass breeding..

Best Value: #2 Annual Update 20-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Dynamaker 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Lookin At Tiger 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Callingahardten 15-1 4th


11th: LA-CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Cy's Hope 9-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #3 Cool Stream 4-1 -
Exotics Use: #4 Donna'szippyd'jour 5-1 -
Super Add: # 12 Yoda Dakota 15-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-4-5
10: 1-6
11: 2-4-5-8-9-10-11-12
12: 3-10

3x2x8x2 = 96 x .50 = $48



GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific Maiden event for sophs offers trio exiting Free Entry's good win, and all of them, my top three below, experienced a hiccup or two in the race. KMc Storm Cat on rail is half to Point Given, and other pedigree powered players include firster Johan, full to Teuflesberg, and Zito-Pell Quiet American bay Saigon Story, half to good ALW runner Quick Delivery who won on this oval earlier in the week..

Most Likely: #12 Simbamangu 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Turnofthecat 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Escort 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Saigon Story 15-1 9th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Performing 6-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #1 Radiant Sky 12-1 12th
Exotics Use: #6 Nurse Dolce 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Developing Story 4-1 8th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Respect first NA (#9 Straight Line) from skillful Attfield, but 5-2 tough to swallow from outside post this trip. Protect in multis but looking elsewhere for price boost..

Best Value: #3 Cockeyed Rooster 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Chinglish 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Nine O Wonderful 8-1 3rd-DH
Super Add: #2 Moonstock 6-1 6th


9th: 21st Sabin (G3), F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Very quirky edition of this stake with questionable pace scenario key to unlocking the mystery. Several here like to be on or near front with Catch a Thief and Hyperlink the entities possessing sprinter's speed. Amazing will need to be at least forwardly placed out of the chute too, and Pletcher returnees (Awesome Maria) are almost always 'fresh', so potential for duel exists. If they all grapple, a meltdown is possible making even 15-1 Musical Romance viable. But it's always as likely in these situations that everybody looks at each other coming out of the gate and the pace never develops. In that case, a first run stalker like Sassy Image could get the best trip... Freely admit to having no clue as to what happens here. Hit the 'All' button in multis if you can afford it because any of the 8 can win..

Best Value: #8 Sassy Image 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Hyperlink 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 SCR (11:58a)
Super Add: #3 Musical Romance 15-1 5th


10th: 16th Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Chose from whichever Attfield you wish (Musketier for me), and though distance a question, hard-hitting Rahy's Attorney is well drawn for stretchout and may well drift upwards from the 8-1 ML. You need to be searching for altenatives to the vulnerable favorites (Prince Will I Am and Al Khali)..

Most Likely: #6 Musketier 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Rahy's Attorney 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Stately Victor 12-1 12th
Super Add: #11 Mint Chip 20-1 10th


11th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Laconic 7-2: Washed off last; Unimaginative choice.. WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #6 Prado Dash 8-1: Nafzger tricky off breaks; First firm turf try.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Punster 12-1: Well bred and maybe needed lawn from get-go.. 6th
Super Add: #10 Perfect Joiski 10-1: Half to Singletary.. 10th


<$20 P6 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 1-4
8: 3-6
9: All
10: 6
11: 3-5-6

2x2x2x7x1x3 = 168 x .10 = $16.80


<$100 P5 Play:

7: 1-4-6-7
8: 3-6
9: 1/SCR-5-8
10: 3-6
11: 3-5-6

4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-6
9: All
10: 3-6
11: 3-5-6

2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42


Good luck!
Steve