Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Blue Grass was a classic Poly prep.

Last week - Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch was 2.5% (fair vale in the 40/1 to 50/1 range) to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks in advance of the race - while still needing to run one more time and pad his Graded earnings - he was an overlay at 25/1 today and made the best of a very good pace setup. Nehro - once again was wisely ridden - and once again finished up very strongly to finish 2nd.

The Factor simply proved rating tactics won't work for him. He's 1/5 to be the pacesetter in the KY Derby if he goes. I'm probably being too harsh dropping his win chances to 6.5% - but it's no lock that he's going to run in the KY Derby. His chances of winning may be 6.5% - but his chances of running 3rd and 4th are virtually zero.

A strong underlay coming into this week - The Factor might creep into overlay territory by race time. There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Elite Alex's reportedly sensational workout in blinkers did not translate into anything good on the racetrack. It was easily the worst performance of his career - he barely beat Brethren.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (19.25%)
Dialed In (16.25%)
Archarcharch (8.25%)
Nehro (8%)
Midnight Interlude (8%)
The Factor (6.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (6.25%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Jaycito (2.25%)
Pants on Fire (1.80%)
Brilliant Speed (1.25%)
Santiva (1%)
Decisive Moment (1%)
Animal Kingdom (1%)
Stay Thirsty (0.50%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Sway Away (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Bretheren (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 2.45%