5/12: Churchill (P6/Hi-5 C/O's); Hollywood (P5/P6 C/O's)

[Kasept]

Another Derby, another carryover bonanza left in its' wake. $515k P6 and $220k Hi-5 pots lay in wait Thursday on an approachable series of races at the Downs. Meanwhile, Hollywood has its' own pair of bonus pools with remainders of $107k in the P5 and $91k in the sextet. Thoughts below, with Marty McGee visiting ATR at 9:30a to preview the Kentucky jackpots.

Good day of racing Wednesday at Belmont with a great deal of success on the first half of the card as the $240+ early P4 and a $70 overlay P3 on races 2-4 helped build a nice cushion. Tough to find $60 winner of the 6th derailed the late P4. Hope you did well!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$515k P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #8 Donnaguska 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Dreymore 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Gaelic Lass 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #11 Lookslikelove 12-1 6th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Muhaaseb 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Gypsy Wind 3-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Awesome Review 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #8 Devine Revelation 5-1 8th


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Patine 7-2 8th
Best Value: #3 Little Bit Tiny 12-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Anabaa's Fortune 9-2 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #5 She Can Fly 4-1 5th


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cherry Included 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #6 Rollin Jai Jai 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Starkey 6-1 9th
Super Add: #9 China Melissa 8-1 7th


9th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Parioli's Trick 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Free Brave 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Lookn Mighty Fast 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Tangled Sheets 4-1 WON ($13.20)


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

$220k Hi-5 Carryover..

Most Likely: #7 Tactical Man 4-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miami Rockstar 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cowboy Sam 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Waylon's Ghost 20-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Blue Solitude 6-1 3rd


<$100 Super Hi-5 Play:

A: 7
B: 4-6
C: 3-4-6
D: 3-4-6-7-9
E: All

1x2x2x3x7 = $84


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 7-8-12
6: 4-9
7: 3-4
8: 3
9: 3-5
10: 4-7

3x2x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-7-11
8: 3-6
9: 1-3-5
10: 3-4-6-7-9

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

$107k .50 P5 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Roulette It Roll 5-2 -
Best Value: #3 Desperate Measures 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #1 Meter Me Gone 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Diamond Journey 12-1 4th


2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 All the Love 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #3 Moonstruck Maya 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Going for a Spin 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #5 Miss Mittagong 6-1 5th


3rd: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$91k $2 P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Gogi 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Vicki Victoria 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dolphin Bay 7-2
Super Add: #9 Molly's All Heart 3-1


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Party Ruler 4-1 -
Next Best: #8 Free From My Ex 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 You Little Devil 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Nisus 5-2 WON ($12.20)


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Vikkilee 2-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Marrymeonemoretime 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Entabeni 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Sleep Tight 7-2 WON ($9.40)


<$75 P5 Play:

1: 1-3-5
2: 3-4
3: 2-4-5
4: 6-8
5: 2-3-8-9

3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Afleet Deal 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gallant Gent 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Star Nicholas 6-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Kate's Event 9-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Cigar Man 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Burj Dubai 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Uh Oh Bango 5-2 WON ($8.00)


8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gutshot Straight 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Gifted Student 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Cabo San Lucas 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Smokin Bomb 15-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 4-5
4: 6
5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 3

2x1x4x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-8-9
6: 1-3-6
7: 2-3-4
8: 2-3

4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve