6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

So now....not only does a horse have to have run in the Kentucky Derby for it to make sense to enter the horse in the Belmont, but it also needs to have run "early during his 2yo year."

No. You just keep setting up straw men to knock down. You said Alternation wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning because they had an equal number of starts. I simply countered that the latter started his racing career months before Alternation.

I certainly didn't claim some sort of magical calendar date after which a horse became ineligible to win the Belmont Stakes.

Your argument makes less sense to me the more you make it.

That's because you're trying to make hard and fast rules based on specifics I note about Alternation's career. The point was that Alternation is slightly behind the current top 3yos, so bypassing the Belmont is hardly a shocking development.

The horse just won a G2 race and defeated another decent Graded stakes winner in the process. You act like a horse needs to run in a certain number of races or a certain number of graded stakes races to have a shot in a big G1 race. That's just absolutely not the case in the game today.

Well, you yourself said that Alternation was unlikely to win the Belmont Stakes. What are some of the reasons that formed that opinion?

The connections have apparently made their decision for whatever reason. It seems odd to me, but oh well. Perhaps they agree with you that it would be foolish to enter a horse in a big G1 race in June of his 3yo year because he didn't break his maiden until December of his 2yo year. If so, I think that's a pretty crappy reason.

If it seems odd its because this is nothing but more straw man arguments.

Maybe the Wizard of Oz or Elton John can help you out. Just follow the yellow brick road.