6/30: Hollywood Park ($112k C/O)

[Kasept]

Certain kinds of races can be your friend -- 7f events for me -- and others your mortal enemy. I struggle with non-stake extended distance events like Wednesday's 10f-T 7th, and ended up confused enough to leave out one of the horses that I liked initially, and it cost us the over-paying quad. Despite as sluggish a pace as you'll ever see from ALW horses, 11-2 Point of Entry could not hold off 3-1 Sky Blazer at the end of the mile and a quarter jog. The other three winners in the skein were easy enough to feature, and despite paying $8.50, $8.60 and $9.20 with $7.90 Sky Blazer, the payoff was terrific for the 4 winners: $510.50 ($1), about 3x the parlay. There's another chance to work out the kinks at 10f on grass Thursday as part of the $112k P6 carryover sequence at Hollywood, and I think I have a good idea in it. But I find these kind of events befuddling when the players lack the form stakes runners typically have when traveling 11f-13f. Hope you did OK Wednesday... Brad Free and Rich Eng join me in Hour 3 on ATR to dissect the Holly Park sextet!


HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$112k C/O starts here..

Quirky group with obvious player War Pilot questionable given resume and recent SCR from a stake before landing here. Mullins candidate Luckarack raises tag, but has notoriously reacted negatively off good efforts..

Most Likely: #1 Diamond Geezah 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 War Pilot 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Luckarack 5-2 WON ($6.40)


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Top pair feel like essentials on your sextet ducat, but Portfolio appears healthiest she's ever been and deserves back-up consideration at the least..

Most Likely: #7 Zees Chris 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Santabarbrabendita 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #1 Portfolio 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Dynahere 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (8-1) Paid $26.00
$1 Trifecta (8-1-7) Paid $74.10
$1 Superfecta (8-1-7-4) Paid $401.60


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Hughesy one of the logical singles in the sequence, but what was the issue last time when offered this price initially? Bullybullybully has been knocking on the door this level, will save all the ground while in receipt of several of Mulhall's best karma moves..

Most Likely: #9 Hughesy 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Bullybullybully 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Bronster 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Bud I Crushed It 12-1 10th


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Like Bold Warrior Wednesday at Belmont, (who came through), American Lady has a huge edge in number power versus this group. Lone reservation is the conservative 'next step' approach from a team that regularly goes straight to stakes with horses like this. Single on vast majority of budget-sensitive tickets..

Most Likely: #6 American Lady 6-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #2 Evita's Sister 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Zenidekka 3-1 2nd


7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 10f-T (DD, Super)

Similar 10 panel turf affair was undoing of Wednesday quad at Belmont, and this event is an equally challenging conundrum. Lightly-raced Kazamira is now 6 with an oft-interrupted career tab. If she were utterly hopeless, Moss/Shirreffs team could make the well-bred Dynaformer a broodmare and recent spate of 5f spins says she may be ready for best..

Best Value: #2 Kazamira 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Mutually Benefit 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Granite Girl 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Party With Brando 4-1 6th


8th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Getting to final leg unscathed won't be simple, and this group guarantees further anguish depending on bankroll depth. Just Imagine from O'Neill and Patriot's Voyage from Baffert are going to be leaned on heavily, but frankly, both have dents in their fenders. Matlow and Quinton's Destiny and hot-working returnees Imperial Pride and Utopian (Shirreffs again) all have hints about their possibilities. And then there are the three firsters to worry about..

Most Likely: #2 Matlow 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Just Imagine 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Quinton's Destiny 8-1 WON ($28.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Patriot's Voyage 5-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Utopian 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (3-10) Paid $41.90
$1 Trifecta (3-10-2) Paid $134.80


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1-3-5
4: 1-7-8
5: 1-9
6: 6
7: 2-5
8: 2-10

3x3x2x1x2x2 = 72 x $144


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-9-10
6: 6
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 1-2-3-7-9-10

3x1x4x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve