7/31: Saratoga (Day 9; Ruffian/Fourstardave)

[Kasept]

Fun day of racing and a beautiful afternoon at the Spa, with the first large and enthusiastic crowd of the season on hand exuding the high energy buzz that makes it special. Wagering-wise, I never really got going at the windows despite having a couple of good ideas, and lost close to $300 when the dust settled. Todd Pletcher dominated the afternoon with 4 wins including Stay Thirsty's Jim Dandy score and the impressive unveiling of two year olds Giant Surprise (Giant's Causeway) and Captain Webb (English Channel). Chad Brown won his first G1 with Zagora emerging late to swipe the Diana, while John Terranova found the end zone in the Hattie Moseley with 18-1 overlay My Redbyrd.

There were two 9f sophomore races Saturday that were serving as Travers preps, and George Weaver's Malibu Glow held off Steve Margolis' Windswept hours before the Jim Dandy. Both the winner and runner-up from this ALW bear watching, and it will be interesting to see how the figure makers view the two races. The early route went in 1:50.0, while Stay Thirsty stopped the meter in 1:48.3, and I'll speculate that the surface got faster as Saturday wore on. Out of everything that went on in the two heats, Windswept is the horse that exhibited qualities of the greatest upside potential, and his effort reminded me of Afleet Express' showing in the '10 Jim Dandy ahead of his Travers win.

Back to the Jim Dandy, and while I personally disliked Stay Thirsty among the 4 main contenders, I was delighted to point people toward the 37-1 runner up Moonshine Mullin. His bump along finish produced a $23.40 place price and boosted the $81.50 exacta, $279.00 triple and $1,124.00 super with the 5-2 winner, 2-1 Dominus and 4-1 Alternation. As a son of 2000 Travers runner-up Albert the Great, Moonshine Mullin was bred for dirt and came into the Jim Dandy looking to run on it for the first time. In a race where there was no glaring way to try and make money, it made sense to build around the one horse that was an unknown in the event and had potential to move forward. As I said on 'Loose on the Lead' Saturday morning, no matter which of the prime players you were leaning toward, Moonshine Mullin was the horse to use to attempt to 4-1's into 40-1. Hope you did OK Saturday!

Sunday action abounds! Spa slate features the G1 Ruffian and G2 Fourstardave; $170k P6 carryover at Del Mar; Haskell Day at Monmouth!


SARATOGA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Show Trial 4-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Wishful Tomcat 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Stud Muffin 7-2 WON-DH ($5.00)
Super Add: #10 Sheraguska 10-1 4th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Pretty nondescript bunch..

Most Likely: #4 Shesabronxbomber 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Suave N Sassy 15-1 11th
Next Best: #6 Sally's Dream 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Erin Enchanted 3-1 6th


3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Queens or Better 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #10 City Vice 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Warrior Marie 10-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Seattle Dynasty 9-2 4th


4th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

It's not often we get Arky and Okie breds at Saratoga, let alone in the same race, but there is McPeek with the Ed Anthony homebred Bunker's Ledge (Harperstown) and Parisella with the Kupferberg's Two and Twenty (Northern Afleet) respectively..

Best Value: #8 Lionator 20-1 DNF
Next Best: #4 King and Crusader 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Professor Fate 5-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #11 Two and Twenty 8-1 8th


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Singmeasong 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Pray for Grace 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Drink of the Day 3-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Simsational 6-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

This is nearly an unplayable sequence. we may all be better served spending within the races and with P3's..

2: 3-4-5-6
3: 3-7-10
4: 3-4-8-11
5: 4-6-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Good starter set with all kinds of pace scenario possibilities. It will be interesting to see if Bridgmo gets out quickly enough on Middle of the Nite to confront hot-riding Castellano on Bishop of Nola, because failure to do so could see Bishop loose up front..

Most Likely: #4 Hyper 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #6 Versailles Road 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Don't Fooli Houli 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Perfect Joiski 10-1 6th


7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Giant 'clearance sale' sign on Emma's Posse here, and you would expect her to win unless she's down to three legs. Not sure what the percentages actually are in these cases, but didn't we just see a similar case, and failure, by Asmussen dive bomber Houston Harbor at 3-2 opening week?

Most Likely: #10 Emma's Posse 8-5 4th
Next Best: #4 Hopeful Boy 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #16 (AE) SCR
Super Add: #15 (AE) Never Right Joey 9-2 WON ($8.70)


8th: 27th Fourstardave (G2), 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Sidney's Candy 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #6 Moryba 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Turallure 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Blues Street 4-1 4th


9th: 36th Ruffian Inv. H. (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Though lacking headline star power, this is an intriguing and nicely-matched group. If Marty Wolfson stays at MTH to run Ask the Moon in the Lady's Secret, who is going to run with intent-on-the-lead Absinthe Minded? Virtually everyone else would prefer to stalk. Can Bobby Flay win his 2nd G1 in a month with Super Espresso after Her Smile annexed the Prioress? Steve Hobby has come to Saratoga twice with Telling to steal the G1 Sword Dancer, and now turns up with steady Tiz Miz Sue (6-1). Very tricky event..

Most Likely: #2 Super Espresso 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Tiz Miz Sue 6-1 4th (DQ'd from 3rd)
Exotics Use: #5 Payton d'Oro 2-1 3rd (Up from 4th)
Super Add: #6 Dynazaper 6-1 7th-Eased


10th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

As discussed often, there are no better wagering opps than these state bred ALW turf routes..

Best Value: #6 Cookram Rock 15-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Writingonthewall 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Midnight Billy 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Lonely Whistle 8-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-10
8: 5-6
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-4-5-6-7-8

2x2x3x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve