8/4: Saratoga (Day 12; $100k Guaranteed P6)

[Kasept]

Caught a nice wave to open Week 3 of the Spa stand, as the afternoon built to a sizable crescendo around Matz' Argentine Talisman. Early $112 P4 produced a modest return before things began to really work through the late quad. $13.00 Majestic Hope nosed favored Worth a Buck to start the 7th-10th sequence, and $4.70 Ibboyee then necked Be Bullish in the exciting Morrissey. Tabbing the potential of Argentine Talisman, 10-1 ML and nearly 15-1 going into the gate, ended gleefully as John Velazquez finished strongly with the brother of Haimish Hy tripping big returns from the $31.40 tote.

Sometimes horses look like beach balls to you coming over the plate, and this was just one of those moments. Though I rarely play Doubles, the certainty of Ibboyee or Be Bullish winning ahead of the 9th had me making simple 2x1 plays that brought back $91 for each $2. The P3's from 7th-9th and 8th-10th were excellent at $281 and $131, and the $1 P4 was good for $832 when standout Montana Knight ($4.90) came through easily in the nightcap for Hushion and West Point's 2nd bingo on the day (The Defense Rests). All told, the day netted just under $2,000 and again demonstrated the power of finding just one overpowering handicapping notion to act as a lynchpin to a good day, week or even meet. Hope everyone did well!

Thursday $100,000 guarantee P6 today, and the NSA-G2 Smithwick to 'hurdle' us into the raceday...


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: A.P. Smithwick Mem. (G2), 4+, 16.5f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Slip Away 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Dynaski 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Decoy Daddy 3-1 WON ($9.30)


2nd: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Baltic Shore 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Mabou 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Royal Rossi 5-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #4 Worried Man 20-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Nice looking set of missies including half to Barrier Reef (#5 Ribbon Taffy by Hard Spun), Christmas for Liam (#2 Reservation Blues by Indian Charlie), Due Date & Country Day (#7 Good Deed by Broken Vow). Note that Flashy in Pink, 8-1 and the higher-priced of the 2 Pletcher debuters, was a $95k 2yo buy at Fasig February after being knocked down for $17k as a yearling..

Best Value: #6 Flashy in Pink 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Xunlei 5-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Good Deed 4-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Composition 6-1 7th


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Somewhat nondescript bunch with just a hint here and there of what to expect..

Most Likely: #9 Satin Sheeks 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 False Alibi 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Quiet Ending 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Barrel of Joy 30-1 7th


5th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

And here I thought the 4th race was tough to decipher! This event screams chaos..

Best Value: #10 Harbor Mist 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 For Her Eyes Only 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Moon 8-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Tale of Utopia 20-1 10th


6th: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Decennial 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #6 Margaret Smile 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 To the Point 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Classical Fashion 8-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

This is a complete crapshoot..

3: 6-7-8
4: 5-6-7-9
5: 1-4-6-7-10-11
6: 3-6

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


7th: Birdstone, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #4 Afleet Again who is opting for the John's Call Friday. Suppose it would be appropriate for Nick Zito to win this, no? Equestrio the better of his 2 chances. Pletcher has a potent pair as well, with favored Rule certainly looking like lone speed and Modern Cowboy steadily evolving into a nice horse. Happy to see 'ol favorite Sangaree, half brother of Congaree, at the Spa. Al Stall is lurking in here with ALW stalwart Glenwood Canyon. Fun little race..

Most Likely: #7 Rule 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Equestrio 7-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Sangaree 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gautier 8-1 3rd


8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Style Squad 5-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Cindy's Joy 12-1 Eased
Exotics Use: #6 Abaco 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Wet One 5-1 4th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Very tough group to separate this hungry looking set..

Best Value: #7 Toccet's Image 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Eleven Final Fours 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Get a Grip 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Annawon 6-1 WON ($18.60)


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Getinitalltogether 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Cockeyed Rooster 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Whistlin' Dixie 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #12 European Roulette 15-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 1-5
9: 1-3-7-8-9
10: 1-3-4-5-12

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve