8/21: Saratoga (Day 27; Lake Placid)

[Kasept]

After a humdrum week of capping and play mid-meet, enjoying a superb run of success since Wednesday including excellent returns on Saturday's Alabama Day card. After being surprised by Ferraro's Finger Lakes invader in the 2nd, I had a good feel for the rest of the afternoon. Nabbed the solid late P4 ($599) and rolled lucrative P3's that were particularly boosted by $14 B Shanny (Top tab/Best Value), $14.40 Tapaway (Top tab/Best Value) and $20.40 Fantastic Song (4th choice/Super Add).

The carryover P6 paid an outrageous $366k to 2 winners, and I went 4 of 6 failing to reach Fantastic Song and Midnight Billy with the $192 ducat. But it hardly took away from a delightful big day that was bolstered by the beautiful weather and a great crowd that clearly reveled in the Spa atmosphere. The feature saw Bill Mott add another important race to his Hall of Fame career achievements as Royal Delta easily annexed the 131st Alabama, and Sunday patrons have a chance to see another special filly with many excited about the next exploit of Winter Memories. Hope you did great Saturday and that we again can avoid the thunderstorm gremlins Sunday!


SARATOGA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

What a terrific way to start this quirky card. Absolutely wide open with no one easily eliminated from consideration..

Best Value: #10 Bwana Brave 5-1
Next Best: #8 Concert Stage 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Don't Fooli Houli 10-1
Super Add: #5 Time Trial 8-1

OFF THE TURF: 12-3-13-2


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Hard to know at this time if it is 'dry fast' or wet strip. The 1-2-3-5-6 are all bred well for off going, and Spare Change obviously has already proven OK over it..

Most Likely: #2 Spare Change 2-1
Best Value: #4 Grace Like Rain 6-1
Exotics Use: #5 Street Savy 5-2


3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

As good a meet as Rudy Rod is habving, W. W. Lady's Man has almost always reacted negatively to big efforts. Does like it wet, but am leaning against..

Most Likely: #7 Hero Figure 5-2
Best Value: #3 Turnpike Token 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 System Restore 4-1
Super Add: #6 Lil O's Expression 6-1


4th: 28th Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Lezcano cannot expect to have the nearly perfect daughter of Memories of Silver extricate him from jackpots every time out. Will have to keep reprise her sharp form against some better-than-they-look foes..

Most Likely: #4 Winter Memories 4-5
Best Value: #3 Wyomia 10-1
Exotics Use: #6 Kathmanblu 8-1
Super Add: #2 Bellamy Star 8-1


5th: MSW, 3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Springcourt 6-1
Next Best: #9 Cease 5-2
Exotics Use: #2 Rivendell 12-1
Super Add: #3 Deposit Slip 3-1


<$75 P4 Play:

Idea here is to be in position to score should Winter Memories get beat..

2: 1-2-4-5
3: 3-5-7
4: 2-4-5-6-7-8
5: 1-9

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Rarely suggest focusing play on Rusty Arnold, but #7 Run a Risk (10-1) is the right place to try given experience factor versus many firsters and pedigree power on move to intended surface (assuming it stays on the turf). Note that Lisa Lewis sends the baby full sister of Ginger J here. That one broke her maiden as a FTS 3yo against $25k types just 9 days ago at 7-1. Lewis is solid with debuters in general -- though not necessarily with firsters turf sprinting -- but it seems prudent to be aware in this particular situation..

Best Value: #7 Run a Risk 10-1
Next Best: #2 Tanglewood Tale 6-1
Exotics Use: #1 Sweet Cat 5-2
Super Add: #9 Cattaraugus 6-1

OFF THE TURF: TBD


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Flavor Girl 6-1
Next Best: #4 Beautiful But Blue 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Read the Research 5-1
Super Add: #3 Ave's Halo 5-2


8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

This is a curious assembly of ne'er-do-wells. Weaver-Repole send 'claim-and-drop' fave Silver Screamer looking for a win, but there are a few interesting candidates for exotics or as upsetters. See that Carroll brings back Cindy's Joy in an abandonment move after embarrassing non-effort 2 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #3 Silver Screamer 5-2
Best Value: #4 Vertical Lift 8-1
Exotics Use: #5 Vintage Heirloom 5-1
Super Add: #1 Cindy's Joy 12-1

OFF THE TURF: TBD


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Just Hold On 6-1
Next Best: #2e Pletcher entry 7-2
Exotics Use: #6 Will's Wildcat 5-1


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Yeesh.. This is some way to end the sequences. All guesswork..

Best Value: #2 Court of Dreams: J/T combo clicked with Elusive Bluff (BEL; 9/5/08) at 34-1..
Next Best: #6 Shesabronxbomber 9-2: Like Rivelli's handling with T/D stretching out..
Exotics Use: #5 Wholelottashakin 15-1: Half to hard-hitter Dewars Rocks; Should turf OK..
Super Add: #8 Goldie's Reward 8-1: Weaver sharp stretching them out; Sibs liked lawn..

OFF THE TURF: TBD


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-7-8
8: 3-4
9: 2-4-6
10: 2-4-5-6-8-11

4x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve