2/10: Aqueduct (2nd-9th)

[Kasept]

Not sure what I was thinking leaving I'm Magic off the P4 play at AQU Thursday which cost the $99 win. The sequence looked chalky, so I minimized the effort with a $27 ticket, but I'm Magic (12 ML, 15-1 post time) was one of the few spots in the quad where there was a chance for a number. Including him boosted the investment to $36 and he doggedly held off 2-1 Granby Girl after leading every step. Winning $63 would have been preferable to losing $27, so sorry... Aqueduct right back Friday with a very good card including an ALW heavy early P4 and cheaper but challenging sequence for the $150k guaranteed late P4.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: CLM-$30k, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Famous Rose 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Aba Dabbler 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Dattts Cool 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Readygetsgold 8-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Caught Hardened Wildcat in his maiden-breaker at nearly 4-1 and am anxious to see Act II from him today. From sprint stakes family (By Wild Snitch; half to Vengeful Wildcat) and expect to see him edged into black type affairs after this..

Most Likely: #5 Hardened Wildcat 3-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #4 Whistleblower 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Copy My Swagger 4-1 3rd


4th: OC-$50k/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

One of several deep, challenging groups the rest of the day..

Most Likely: #5 Game Token 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Tatao's Widcat 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Pete's Parlay 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Suprise Strike 10-1 4th


5th: OC-$50k/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 North Freeway 4-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #8 Celebrity Sighting 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Natalie Victoria 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Siggi the Alien 5-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-6
3: 5
4: 1-2-4-5-7
5: 1-2-4-6-8

4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/5/2/4) Paid $102.00


6th: CLM-$25k, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

6-5 Plotter -- whose name might be better spelled with 'dd' -- is guaranteed to be overbet. These types can win of course, but as Serling has been pointing out all winter, you're invarably better off being dissmissive of them..

Best Value: #7 Raffie's Bandit 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Muster Up 4-1 WON ($8.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Plotter 6-5 6th
Super Add: #4 Red Bendel 10-1 3rd


7th: MDN CLM-$35k/NY, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

I don't rely completely on Thoro-Graph figures, but in this spot, 15-1 Even Got Quiet and 9-5 Rock Star Charlie ran identical numbers in their last efforts. On top of their relative speed parity, Even Got Quiet drops from MSW company and cuts back to three quarters after 2 fruitless but fitness-building tries..

Best Value: #5 Even Got Quiet 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Rock Star Charlie 9-5 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #9 Smokin Candy 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Northern Rush 6-1 9th


8th: S/HCP, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Joan's Choice 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Screenplay 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Seniors Pride 2-1 WON ($9.30)
Exotics Use: #6 He's So Chic 8-1 5th


9th: CLM-$20k, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Fun card ends here with VERY open and competitive group. Favored Proud Siren (3-1) is no better than the next 6 or 7. Use, but don't fear..

#10 Full of Intent 5-1 a SCR..

Best Value: #8 The Silver Machine 15-1
Next Best: #9 Caps Lady 8-1
Exotics Use: #7 Proud Siren 3-1
Super Add: #5 Star Vesta 8-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-7
7: 2-4-5-9
8: 1-3
9: 2-4-5-7-8-9

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve