8/22: Saratoga (Day 29; Albany-NY)

[Kasept]

Saratoga more or less reaches the quarter pole today with 28 days in the book and 12 to come. After an early stretch of tumultuous results that had most players scrambling at the start of the meet, an intense period of normalcy has pervaded the Spa with an average of nearly 6 favorites a day finding success over the last 7 cards. So in what amounts to bit of a shell game, the first third of the stand invited you to reach out for price plays just as the sands were shifting back towards the age old paradigm of faves winning about 35% and hitting the board 65% of the time.

Saratoga is a relatively short meet, but the lesson is that staying the course with your play, with expectations of typical pervading results, is always the best of course of action. As usual, fairing well will be determined by how successfully your emotions are held in check and that your confidence not be swayed. I've reminded many frustrated visitors that mixed or weak returns at Saratoga are not generally a result of poor handicapping or wagering and the slightly curious ebb/flow of this particular season has added to the already difficult equations. If the big scores you expect and find annually have yet to materialize, hang in as long as your bankroll allows. Though entering the final stretch, there is still plenty of time to leave the summer session a big winner!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Only Madam I'm Adam (SCR'D) has started and that wasn't too pretty. Not a lot to base decisions on here except trainer stats and modest pedigree info. Meet the Mets is a half to the excellent R Betty Graybull (Holy Bull). Schosberg reaches for Johnny V. (3/8 last two summers) for Sandy'z Slew, half to fast 2yo Palmetto Bluffs (Salt Lake)..

Most Likely: #7 Saint Arthur 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Sandy'z Slew 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Meet the Mets 3-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Tom Ed 8-1 5th


2nd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Jess Not Jesse 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #6 Little Nick 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Evacuation Route 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Ziptronic 8-1 2nd


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Victory Island 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Ibid 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Class Action Suit 2-1 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Clear Pasaj 7-2 5th


4th: OC/N2X, F&<M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sylvestris 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Eye Candy Annie 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Adjacent 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Warm Hugs 7-2 3rd


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Hard to go against the obvious ones here..

Most Likely: #7 Bourbon Twist 5-2 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #4 Moonlit Sonata 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 The Lady Says Yes 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 John's Mariah 6-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-6-7
3: 2-5-6
4: 1-2-5-7
5: 4-6-7

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (4,5,8/6/7,8,9/7) Paid $80.00


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Note that #1a Dubai Time (10-1) could change this scenario a great deal.. GETS IN

Best Value: #1a Dubai Time 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Kitten's Kid 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Master Achievement 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #9 Political Courage 6-1 9th

.10 SUPER: Key 1 in 1st/2nd with 2-5-8-9-10 (1x5x4x3 [60] + 5x1x4x3 [60] = 120 x .10 = $12.00


7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Interesting MDN/$50k affair with droppers from Pletcher and Mott, turf movers and debuters from dangerous outfits..

Most Likely: #3 Coach A. J. 2-1: WinStar using the quick hook; Dynaformer mare.. WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #1 Counting Days 10-1: Bulleted at Downs, vanned here for $47k pot.. 4th
Next Best: #7 Bold and Ready 6-1: Hill homebred right for lawn, spotted for success.. 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Boston Proper 4-1 2nd


8th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Quality group..

Most Likely: #2 Bluember 7-2 DNF (Incident)
Best Value: #5 Colony Strike 8-1 WON ($30.60)
Next Best: #4 Desert Storm 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Washington's Rules 4-1 2nd


9th: 35th Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (DD)

This event is a bit of a curiosity and before mailing it in with the ML faves, remember that Bigger is Bettor won it last year at 30-1. It feels like there is no shortage of pace here and the 9f is a an unknown element for most of them..

Best Value: #4 Live for Today 5-1 DNF (Eased)
Next Best: #2 Willy Beamin 9-5 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Zivo 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Smokin Candy 20-1 5th


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

#11 (AE) Race Palace certainly a big threat if she gets in..

Most Likely: #10 Thus 5-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Race Palace 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Cypress Pond 4-1 DNF (Froggy fall off)
Exotics Use: #9 Warm Glow 7-2 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-7-8
8: 2-4-5
9: 2-3-4-6-7
10: 10-11

5x3x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve