10/19: Keeneland (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 In Step Dancer 5-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Propelleroneway 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Bold Kitten 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Remember Then 3-1 WON ($8.20)


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Does Dark Nebula have to win here? She's best on paper but note that she finished 2nd a disconcerting 4 times before the maiden breaker. Larry Jones has had a zipless meet (9/0-1-0), but Juliet's Promise (6-1) off the break has potential..

Best Value: #10 Juliet's Promise 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Dark Nebula 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Cataract Canyon 12-1 WON ($17.80)
Super Add: #11 Street Mate 15-1 6th


7th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

I'm calling her Best Value but Colonial Flag will be lower than 6-1..

Best Value: #6 Colonial Flag 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Medolina 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Cato 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Volcat 12-1 9th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Nearly impossible group. If track is slick after rain and with cooler temps, I suppose Imposing Grace could be a wire threat, but she has only succeeded on easy leads. Beyond that, any scenario you come up with can work. As much as I fear dealing with the $7,500 claiming nightcap, this is a spot frought with danger..

Most Likely: #3 Gloat 4-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Langcita 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Fast Bobbi J 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Oaks Lily 12-1 10th


9th: Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Hard to argue with Chad Brown's success in spots like these (Pianist), but there are 2-3 that are serious contenders with her. Note that plus efforts from Miss Cato/Volcat in the 1st division flatters Pucker Up players Leading Astray and Freedom Reigns..

Best Value: #1 Miz Ida 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #4 Pianist 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Leading Astray 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Dancing Solo 6-1 -


10th: CLM, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Some finish to a quality sequence..

Best Value: #7 Copper Cascade 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Five Afleet 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Precipice Trail 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #2 Sudden War 4-1 11th


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-9-10
7: 6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-4-9-12
10: 1-2-6-7

3x1x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-4-9-12
10: 1-2-6-7-8

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve