5/4: Churchill Downs (139th Kentucky Derby)

[Kasept]

Oaks Day came off a bit strangely Friday with little continuity or momentum sustained. Some horses that were underlaid on the ML ended up going off at good prices (Magic Union, Speedinthruthecity) while others that looked like values disappointed at overbet numbers (Strike Charmer, Joelito). When it looked like there was an inkling of a score -- a potentially healthy P3 after Authenticity & Kitten's Dumplings came through -- Fusaichiswonderful was collared in the final strides by So Many Ways.

The riding antics of Albarado and Borel in the Alysheba and the Oaks greatly impacted the outcomes later in the day, so all in all it was an entertaining but sideways afternoon. Given that the Friday card looked like the more furtive of the 2 day extravaganza, it will likely take some creativity to make money Saturday.

Hope everyone enjoyed ATR's 2 week run at Churchill. As always, it went by in a flash. Happy Derby.. Safe trips and best of luck to all!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


CD SCR/CHG'S -- NOTE THAT RAIN WILL COME & TRACK CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE


1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Apropos 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Honey Hues 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Glamour Puss 2-1 WON ($7.40)


2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Gombey Dancer 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 River Rocks 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Slan Abhile 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Our Double Play 8-1 WON ($29.60)


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 The Pizza Man 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Under Control 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Old Time Hockey 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Screenplay 3-1 3rd


4th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Troubadour Tango 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bama Bound 6-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Saint X. 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Esplendido 8-1 12th


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Perfect Title 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bellarmine 6-1 WON ($25.20)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-8
3: 1-4-5-6
4: 3-5-6-12
5: 8

3x4x4x1 = 48 ($24 for .50)


6th: 19th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Not a great deal of speed. Southern Dude can wire..

Most Likely: #4 Ghost Is Clear 9-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Southern Dude 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Ikon Ike 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1 2nd


7th: 27th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Aubby K 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #3 Same Cross 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Rumor 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Emma's Encore 8-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 3-5-6-12
5: 8
6: 1-2-3-4-6-8
7: 2-3-4-6

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


8th: 28th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lots of pace here..

Most Likely: #5 Hungary Island 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Karlovy Vary 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 LATE SCR (Marketing Mix)
Exotics Use: #3 Daisy Devine 3-1 3rd


9th: 79th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Delauney 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 Unbridled's Note 5-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Politicallycorrect 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Hierro 10-1 5th


10th: 27th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sure hope the questionable weather doesn't dash this superb matchup. Feeling like McGaughey planning for this and LoPresti calling an audible provides tiniest edge to Point of Entry..

Most Likely: #9 LATE SCR (Point of Entry)
Next Best: #8 Wise Dan 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Optimizer 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Jeranimo 8-1 7th


11th: 139th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

After two weeks talking about this Derby, there's not much else to be said. Top pair from Florida Derby and SA Derby winner are the three most accomplished horses here. Mylute and Java's War are the types that invade the exotics in this race..

Most Likely: #16 Orb 7-2 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1 15th
Next Best: #8 Goldencents 5-1 17th
Exotics Use: #6 Mylute 15-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #19 Java's War 15-1 13th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-6
8: 3-5-7-8/SCR
9: 9
10: 8-9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16

3x3x1x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-8/SCR
9: 5-7-9
10: 8-9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16

3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bull Dozer 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #2 Rightfully So 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Seven Lively Sins 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Wild Target 4-1 8th


13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f

Very deep set of maidens with many having run races that that look good enough. I make 7 possible and another 3 close by..

Best Value: #7 Sylvester 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Column 5-1 WON ($19.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Best Request 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 To the Stars 6-1 9th


<$100 P4 Play:

10: 8-9/SCR
11: 6-8-12-16
12: 2-4-8
13: 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-12

1x4x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,8,9/1,16,21/6,8/5) Paid $215.65


Good luck!
Steve