10/26: Belmont Park ($173k C/O)

[Kasept]

Well, what's yet one more C/O flirtation? Got through first 4 legs cleanly Friday but knew trouble was brewing when Linda Rice's 6-1 Make a Decision was getting bet in the state-bred turf route 9th. The Medaglia d'Oro 3yo, who missed the summer turf season, followed his recent ALW win with another good effort and couldn't be denied in deep stretch. Then in a surprising development, 10th race winner Lemon Lashes ($32.00) -- 4th choice for me as an exotics player but left off my P6 play -- was the lone uncovered runner in the pool and everyone has another chance at the sextet with $173k as the jackpot. Leave for California this afternoon with Breeders' Cup ATR live from Santa Anita starting Monday!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Not sure what to do about the pair of Pletcher firsters..

Most Likely: #10 Tourist 4-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Wicked Strong 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 Endowment Manager 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Bourbon Sense 10-1 3rd


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

As always, state-bred ALW makes for a great opportunity. Spread and use the big numbers..

Most Likely: #5 Joy Seeker 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #9 Ascended Fever 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Image of Noon 7-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Kimmies Lucky Star 30-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Silver Silence 20-1 8th


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Candyman E 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #12 Readbytheline 6-1 10th
Best Value: #9 The Truth and K G 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a Congressional Page 4-1 8th


8th: 38th Bold Ruler (G3), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Pace edge at first blush to Strapping Groom but note blinker addition to not-slow-to-begin-with Clearly Now. Could trigger prompt or duel scenario. Big Screen gets chance to sit behind that pair. This may be more complicated event than it looks and no one is without chance as a result..

Most Likely: #6 Strapping Groom 9-5 4th
Best Value: #5 Clearly Now 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #2 Big Screen 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Politicallycorrect 5-1 6th


9th: 19th Turnback the Alarm (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Centring 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Royal Lahaina 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Street Secret 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Moon Philly 10-1 6th


10th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T

Bizarroworld could get very loose up front..

SCR NOTES: #13 (AE) Gimme Credit (7-2) gets in and is a major player..[/i]

Most Likely: #8 Bizarroworld 4-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Carson Bandit 10-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Gimme Credit 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Precious Metal 15-1 WON ($23.20)


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-9-10
6: 5-9
7: 2-9-12
8: 2-5-6
9: 6
10: 8

4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-9-12
8: 2-5-6
9: 2-5-6-7
10: 8-9-13

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve