12/18: Aqueduct ($24k C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: Damon Runyon-NY, 2yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Agree with Andy Serling's assertion Tuesday on ATR that if Samraat is engaged early, with stretching sprinter Geaux Mets the likely urger, emergent Deceived, baby brother of Naughty New Yorker, should have every chance to beat him. Turf-to-dirt movers Forever Utopia (Terranova) and Balderdash (Feron) are both from nice families with the Utopia bay being more eligible to like the main track than the grey son of NY-turf stake winner Them There Eyes..

Most Likely: #4 Deceived 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Samraat 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #2 Forever Utopia 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Geaux Mets 9-2 5th


4th: MCLM/$50k, 3yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)

$24k C/O starts here..

Jacobson ML fave (Coronate) and Brown/Porter fire sale (Paid $420k for Horsepower) appear obvious but Alysaro, Tony D and Snifter have races on page that can find winner's circle. Tricky P6 event for budget players...

Most Likely: #2 Coronate 5-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Horsepower 7-2 (A) 8th
Best Value: #6 Alysaro 8-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Snifter 4-1 (C) 4th
Super Add: #8 Tony D 8-1 (C) 2nd


5th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Can expect Jacobson will move Persnickity up of Hammy Smith, but be aware that Value Plus filly is stretching out and there's plenty of pace involved. Sally's Dream has to be a play against with her main and wet track form considerably below her grass level. All this may be a formula to lean heavily on Lady Gracenote -- chased Uno Dou in the Fickle Fanny last week and gets in light here -- on your main P6 play. Note that Mess in a Dress, consistent all fall, hit the board in 5 of 7 tries last winter on the inner..

Most Likely: #3 Lady Gracenote 9-5 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #6 Persnickity 7-2 (B) 7th
Best Value: #2 Mess in a Dress 15-1 (C) 6th
Exotics Use: #4 E Z Passer 10-1 (C) 4th


<$75 P5/P4 Play:

1: 3-8
---------
2: 2-5
3: 1-2-4
4: 2-6-7
5: 3-6

P5: 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
P4: 2x3x3x2 = $36


6th: MCLM/$25k, 2yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

This race has a problematic feel to it with 4 stretchouts, three getting blinkers, drops in class, et al..

Most Likely: #1 King Kongrats 5-2 (A) WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #2 Steve Came Thru 5-1 (B) 3rd
Next Best: #4 King of Gold Street 3-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Pacemakestherace 8-1 (C) 4th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Darnley Bay 3-1 (A) WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #7 Cry Holy 5-2 (A) 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Casual Elegance 4-1 (B) 2nd
Best Value: #9 Swift Taylor 5-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #6 Bunhead 10-1 (C) 8th


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Uncle Smokey 7-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #3 Dehere of the Cat 12-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #11 I'm Stocked 3-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Do I Amuse You 4-1 (B) 5th


9th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f

It will be pretty shocking to see anyone other than Escape to the Moon win this nightcap..

Most Likely: #8 Escape to the Moon 6-5 (A) WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #4 Saltine Warrior 7-2 (B) 9th
Best Value: #9 Felix 6-1 (C) 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Ronnie's Whey 15-1 (X) 6th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-6-7
5: 3-6
6: 1-2-4
7: 7-10
8: 1-3
9: 8

3x2x3x2x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-7
7: 2-6-7-9-10
8: 1-2-3-8-11
9: 8

4x5x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve