5/3: Churchill Downs (Derby Day)

[Kasept]

Derby Day dawns with an afterglow still alight from the fulfilling performances Friday of Untapable in the Oaks and trainer Steve Asmussen in a sit down with NBC's Bob Costas. In advance of Untapable's overwhelming effort in the feature, Asmussen was equally dominant while on the offensive against PETA's potentially slanderous smears and Dinny Phipps' preposterous suggestion that Asmussen avoid the Downs doings this weekend. On the oval, Rosie Napravnik was flawless in her handling of Ron Winchell's homebred colt, recognizing that the pace wasn't going to be as serious as anticipated with Fashion Plate blowing the break and My Miss Sophia potentially loose. Napravnik and the Tapit filly were in ideal striking distance throughout and moved on the Pletcher Gazelle winner on the turn to take command as they straightened for home. The rest was simply the drawing of a conclusion that was foreshadowed throughout the fortnight lead in to the weekend.

The stakes undercard was entertaining and mostly chalk-filled, as On Fire Baby ($5.20), Marchman ($8.80), Fiftyshadesofgold ($6.20) and A Little Bit Sassy ($10.20) took the preliminaries ahead of 3-5 Will Take Charge being dispatched by $15.80 Moonshine Mullin. The 'Baby' win always elates the Downs with Red Dog Hartlege, Anita Cauley and Joe Johnson local favorites, while Texas-bred mighty mite Fiftyshadesofgold was a heartening win for the family of the late Mr. Scharbauer. Wagering-wise, was unable to get a big multi punch home, but tallied in spots and closed out the afternoon with a bump finding Al Stall $19.40 first timer French Press on the strength of her dam's precocious speed. Stall won the opener as well as Brazen Persuassion came back strong in her 3yo bow and looks to be in position to resume what looked like a promising career last summer.

Derby Day unfolds shortly and I'd watch to see if the track slows down from yesterday's slick status. It was downright cold Friday and warmer temperatures and sun Saturday should fluff up and slow the strip. Remember that there is no main track use for nearly 3 hours ahead of the Derby. Hope everyone did OK Friday and has a great Derby. Let's get the horses and riders home safe and leave with more than we came with...


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Prosecution 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Doctor Peter 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Upkeep 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Trace Creek 4-1 5th


2nd: OC/N2X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 No Surrender 5-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #5 Demander 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Rockford 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Chas's Legacy 4-1 6th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Reeder 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Masochistic 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #10 Boss Gone 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 A Touch of Poetry 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Coastal Moon 3-1 5th


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Kyriaki 3-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Kimallosa 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Magical Steps 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Abundantly Clear 12-1 3rd


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible group. Use as many as you can afford..

Most Likely: #8 Ulanbator 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Standpoint 20-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Thundergram 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Watery Moon 3-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Sultry Cat 4-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

2: A (1), B (5-6-7), C (4)
3: A (1-2), B (8-9-10), C (4)
4: A (10), B (3-4), C (1)
5: A (3-8), B (1-7-11), C (9)

15 plays: $70.50


6th: 29th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Top 3 look almost interchangeable. Lynch filly is tractable and a value..

Best Value: #2 Coffee Clique 12-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #9 Centre Court 7-5 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Tapicat 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Miz Ida 6-1 7th


7th: 29th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Presence of Judy the Beauty feels like an afterthought and Midnight Lucky has looked as good as any horse not named Untapable the last two weeks at CD..

Most Likely: #8 Midnight Lucky 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #3 Judy the Beauty 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Scherzinger 7-2 3rd


<$60 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

4: A (10), B (1-3-4), C (5-7)
5: A (3-8), B (1-7-11), C (9)
6: A (2-9), B (1-3), C (6-8)
7: A (8), B (3-5), C (-)

14 Plays: $58.00


8th: 23rd American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Though shelved for now, Enterprising may be the best 3yo turfer in the crop and fact that Quotient was with him at the wire when last seen is good enough for me. Draws perfectly for task and price looks like it will hold..

Best Value: #3 Quotient 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Storming Inti 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Picozza 5-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Chief Barker 5-1 8th


9th: 80th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f P3, DD)

Confounding set for me with uncertain amount of authentic speed involved save for Delauney, hot-drilling Broadway Empire and perhaps Falling Sky. Sahara Sky reunites with Rosario and would appear to be the firmament around which you build. Stevens hasn't taken a call for Diodoro since the return, but his brother Scott rode the return race and fact gelding was even sent here intriguing with plenty of West Coast options available. Shakin It Up looks 'too slow' on paper but has worked more than 3 miles since San Carlos..

Most Likely: #4 Sahara Sky 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Broadway Empire 15-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Shakin It Up 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Delauney 9-2 5th


10th: 28th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Given the challenges before and after this event, we'll need Wise Dan to come through again in this spot. He should..

Most Likely: #1 Wise Dan 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Boisterous 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Seek Again 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Bright Thought 20-1 7th


11th: 140th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

As discussed on ATR in my Xpressbet Derby Guide entry, your first call here is your stand on California Chrome. I'd be delighted if he won and will have plenty of coverage against the prospect but think you want to reach for big numbers as your prime in-race objective. The SCR of Hoppertunity, who had moved up high on my own pecking order, changed things a bit for me going in to today. Wicked Strong was my top XB Guide tab with Danza next. I'll sub Intense Holiday in for Hoppertunity while then looking to Ride On Curlin, Medal Count and Commanding Curve as well-priced exotics fillers. As mentioned above, it's supposed to be warmer today than it was Friday, so the track may not play as fast as it did today. If it does looks to still be slick, the free-running horses that could stay on are Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Candy Boy & California Chrome. Best of luck!

Most Likely: #20 Wicked Strong 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Danza 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #19 Ride On Curlin 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #16 Intense Holiday 12-1 12th
Super Add: #14 Medal Count 20-1 8th
Hi-5 Include: #17 Commanding Curve 50-1 2nd

.50 TRI BOX: 4-14-16-17-19-20 (6x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60)


<$75 P5 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

7: A (8), B (2-3), C (5)
8: A (3), B (2-8-10), C (5-11)
9: A (4), B (3-11), C (2-6-8-9-10)
10: A (1), B (-), C (2-7-10)
11: A (4-5-20), B (14-16-17-19), C (1-6-12-15-18)

14 plays: $71.00


<$75 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

8: A (3-8), B (2-10), C (5-11)
9: A (4), B (3-11), C (1-2-6-8-9-10)
10: A (1), B (-), C (2-7-10)
11: A (4-5-20), B (14-16-17-19), C (1-3-6-12-15-18)

11 plays: $70.00


<$75 Oaks-Derby Double Plays:

KO: 13
KD: 4-5-14-16-19-20

1x6 x $5 = $30 $5 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY 13-5) Paid $28.50

KO: 13
KD: 3-6-12-15-17-18

1x5 x $1 = $6

KO: 2-4-5-9-11-12
KD: 4-5-14-16-19-20

6x6 = $36


<$25 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Play:

KO: 13
WR: 1
KD: 4-14-16-19-20

1x1x5 x $5 = $25


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #9 Captain Genius 12-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #7 Bull Dozer 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Platitude 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Slan Abhaile 7-2 4th


13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f

Party Time gate ripped with Chitu and was game..

Most Likely: #1 Party Time 3-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Awesome Sky 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 C J's Awesome 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Rocket Time 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Saa Mi 9-2 WON ($20.60)


<$75 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

10: A (1), B (-), C (2-7-10)
11: A (4-5-20), B (14-16-17-19), C (1-6-12-15-18)
12: A (7-9), B (2), C (3)
13: A (1-5), B (2-3), C (8)

11 Plays: $74.00 $2 Pick 4 1-5/11/21-9-3 (4 correct) Paid $185.75


Good luck!
Steve