6/13: Churchill Downs (Stephen Foster Night)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Casse entry 7-5 WON ($3.40)/4th
Next Best: #3 Golden But Stormy 4-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Archway to Heaven 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Special Agent 8-1 9th


5th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Catalano's Top Clearance ran into Mr. Jordan in debut and race close to return try wins clear. Note First Lasix/3yo debuts from McPeek (L T's Best Tale) and Peitz's Alzanbaq..

Most Likely: #7 Top Clearance 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 L T's Best Tale 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Alzanbaq 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Awopaho 8-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Bullard's Alley 12-1 2nd


6th: 46th Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T P4, P3, DD)

Curious bunch with presence of first turf Christina's Journey adding to intrigue. Get sense the two last-out maiden winners (Return to Grace & America Mon Amie) are instantly as good as any of the stakes-experienced ones that are signed on..

Most Likely: #2 Return to Grace 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Don't Leave Me 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Lady Zuzu 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Urtheoneeyelove 5-1 6th


7th: 40th Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

No shortage of pace here which seems to set it up perfectly for Tiz Windy..

Best Value: #2 Tiz Windy 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Sheer Drama 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Gold Medal Dancer 3-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Pearl Turn 15-1 8th


P4 Grid:

4: 1 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-5-8 (C)
5: 7 (A), 2-10 (B), 3-4-5-12 (C)
6: 1-2-3 (A), 5-6-7 (B), - (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 3-9 (B), 1-4-6-8 (C)


8th: 34th Stephen Foster (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Noble Bird's Alysheba try as good as anything any of the major players have run in '15..

Best Value: #4 Noble Bird 10-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #5 Hoppertunity 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Commissioner 3-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Lea 7-5 2nd


9th: 18th Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Fame and Power 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Island Town 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #7 Bold Conquest 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Henry Jones 12-1 5th


P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-10 (C)
6: 1-2 (A), 3-7 (B), 5-6 (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 9 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 2-5 (A), 7 (B), 1-6 (C)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-3 (A), 5-6-7 (B), - (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 9 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-7 (C)
9: 5 (A), 2 (B), 1-6-7 (C)


Good luck!
Steve


$64 Late P4:

8: 1-2-4-5
9: 2-5
10: 1-2-3-4
11: 2-3-4-5

$0.50 Pick 4 (4-2-1-6) Pays $377.35