6/18 BEL Pick 5 Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: Can we say how crazy it is that the purse for this race is the same as the purse for the 3rd ($59,000)? Both have $40,000 tags, but this is for straight 3YO fillies, the other is for 3+ and no one in this field has broken a 66 Beyer while the 3rd will likely require a Beyer in the 90's to win. Anyway, #5 Midnight Champagne is the horse to beat for the potent Riccio/Nevin/Ortiz combo, but #6 Dariel, who was bet HARD last time and won easily, isn't far behind. #2 Fiery Cat is also a big threat switching back to dirt for Jacobson after running against much better horses on turf in her last two. I thought #3 Racing for Chasen's last race was a good step forward. She got checked back at the start, rushed up to press the pace and looked like she was fading in midstretch, but actually stayed on well late to only be beaten a length for 2nd behind a much-the-best winner. She actually draws a softer field despite stepping up in claiming price and I like the rider switch to Irad. #1 Herecomeskat is dangerous too for Bruce Levine, who has a positive ROI ($2.21) with 397 route to sprint runners.

2nd: How about Jimmy Toner showing up with a 2YO firster in June? #1 Hyper Nation is out of the millionaire MGSW Bear Now, by Bernardini, so this filly is almost certain to be better going longer, but she has nothing but big works on the tab. Toner is usually the patient type, so it's interesting to see him put her in a race this early in the calendar. #2 Truly Bound is obviously a player for Tony Dutrow. She oddly sold for $320,000 at KEE September, just $5,000 less than the $325,000 likely favorite #3 Positively Royal went for. Those are the main three.

3rd: Singling #1 Classic Salsa, who looks loose as can be against this field after being sent into very fast paces in his last two. #4 Bet the Power and to a lesser extent #6 Sir Bond are the backups. Nothing clever here.

4th: #1A Lotza Heat may have finally found the right field as he has several races that tower over the competition here. It's tough to make a strong case for anyone else, but I'll also use #6 Crescent Street, who turns back to a sprint after forcing fast paces in his last two routes and running OK both times. #9 Momma's Mark, a Generazio gray, is a little interesting for the underrated Jimmy Ryerson. He finally pairs up races after running only once in 576 days and is coming off the best race of his life. Two strong interim works later, he may step forward again.

5th: #6 Cosmic Coincidence looks dangerous on the lead with no other confirmed speed signed on in here after taking a surprising amount of money eight days ago and backing it up with a strong 2nd. Generally not a fan of Linda Rice horses off the layoff, but #2 Noble Doss's three best dirt races have come at Belmont and he should sit a good trip in here. Note that connections chose not to enter him for the $12,500 tag. I also will use #4 Call for the Clock on the turnback to a mile and the switch to hot-riding bug Cancel. #7 Abilio could snap back to form with an outside stalking trip for Contessa and #8 Playing a Joke isn't impossible either.

1,2,3,5,6/1,2,3/1/1,6,9/2,4,6,7,8 = 112.50
1,2,5,6/1,2,3/1,4/1/2,4,6 = 36
1,2,5,6/3/1/1/2,4,6 = 6

154.50 total

G/L!