6/25 BEL Pick 5 Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: #1 Justenuffdior is coming off the fastest race any of these have run, a pretty good closing 2nd at 35-1 behind a wire-to-wire winner 13 days ago. This trainer/jockey combo connected at 52-1 this past Saturday and she actually didn't run that badly two-back either when wide behind a crawling pace on turf. She's the horse to beat, but it's hard for me to trust a filly with no early speed in this kind of cheap field and it's also hard to swallow 2-1 or lower after all the big numbers she's been sent off at. #4 Filly Idol is also a top contender. Two-back, she was much the best, setting a blazing pace going a furlong further on grass and just getting run down late at 28-1. Five days ago, she got the absolute wrong trip, hitting the gate and breaking a half step slow, then being ridden very conservatively from there and still was beaten less than four lengths for the money. The problem is, her two dirt races were atrocious, but the switch to Cancel and her speed make her dangerous alone. #6 Queen Katherina isn't impossible on the slight drop, as she showed improved speed last out and could find herself on a clear lead turning for home if Filly Idol quits on the dirt again.

A: 1
B: 3,4,6

2nd: Hate that #4 Stevie's Wonder scratched in here as I was all over him. He managed to run against the grain of the race two different ways against two solid fields at Gulfstream, making a pretty good close into a race that was dominated up front after breaking last in the slop in his debut, then stalking and making the first move into a sizzling pace going a mile next time out and still staying on decently to be 3rd. The big favorite now will be #2 Prima Storm, who does nothing but find ways to get beaten, having now lost as the favorite five consecutive times. His task got much easier with Stevie's Wonder out, but I'll throw in #7 Alaapatique and #8 Burndines as B's.

A: 2
B: 7,8

3rd: Singling #4 Carameaway. She goes out for an ice-cold barn, but it's tough to see anyone being able to challenge her up front in here and loose on the lead in a one-turn mile is really her bread-and-butter. She got drubbed last out, but that was a very odd race in which Sheriffa just bottomed out the race and fractured anybody who dared chase her, and Carameaway was the closest of the chasers. The other ones within shouting distance of the first two fractions were Miss Da Point, who ended up last, and Hot Stones, who also was up the track and returned to win impressively in yesterday's feature. I expect Carameaway to make the lead easily and wire this field. Her not owning a distinct figure edge and going out for low-profile connections says she won't be a prohibitive favorite, so she makes for a good value single. I'll do a slight backup with 2nd most likely winner -- and the only other horse with something resembling tactical speed -- #1 Storied Lady in case Carameaway breaks poorly or doesn't show up for whatever reason.

A: 4
B: none
C: 1

4th: Hate these blind 2YO races, but mercifully this NY-bred 2YO heat looks much more straightforward than the opener yesterday, which was won by a 17-1 Zayat horse that hadn't recorded a published workout in over a month. #3 Up With the Sun looks legit for Rudy with a best-of-25 gate work in tow and a precocious young sire in Lookin At Lucky (firsters 12-for-60, 29-for-60 ITM). #4 Stormin Stephen also looks dangerous for Clement/Irad and this colt has several sizzling works showing, including a big local gate breeze this past Saturday. I give #5 Extinct Charm an outside shot, as Contessa usually pops with a firster or two before this meet is over and this one appears to have some ability. #6 Lucky Lurie has also reportedly looked very good in the mornings and will be a square price for Mark Hennig. The Asmussen entry rates a little bit of a look, but his barn has been dreadful this meet.

A: 3,4,6
B: 5
C: 1,7

5th: #8 Pep the Champ is very dangerous, as though he has trouble stringing together races, he's put up some big efforts locally, his most recent effort chief among them, as he was the only horse to make up significant ground on the much-the-best winner and galloped out past the field first off a winter layoff. That race has stood up well, as the winner, 3rd and 4th finishers all came back with bang-up efforts next out. #7 Birchwood Road is logical but is tough to take at a short price with his 1-for-20 record and his most recent race was not great. #1 Luv Dakota Skye took a long while to get into the clear last out but closed nicely once he did and that makes four good efforts in a row since being switched back to grass. Loses Alvarado but picks up Javier and should appreciate the stretch-out to seven furlongs. #3 Melville also merits consideration, as he has back races that make him competitive and it's a good sign that Toscano, who's having a terrific year, puts him where he can't be claimed after nabbing him for $40k last time. The caveat is that he was claimed from Kiaran McLaughlin, a very tough guy to move horses up off of.

A: 8
B: 1,3,7

.50 1,3,4,6/2,7,8/4/3,4,5,6/1,3,7,8 = 96
.50 1/2/1,4/3,4,6/1,3,7,8 = 12
.50 1/2/4/1,7/1,3,7,8 = 4
2 1/2/4/3,4/8 = 4

116 total

G/L!